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MANIFOLD
How will I rate Vilenkin 1985? (+free lottery)
10
Ṁ10kṀ364
resolved Sep 18
Resolved as
45%

Resolution

This market will resolve to x%. Number x will be my personal rating of the following literature on a 0-100 scale after studying it in more detail.

Vilenkin (1985) "Quantum Origin of the Universe"

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After the market closes, I will generate a random number M among 1 to 100 using this algorithm. The Mth unique trader of this market wins 300 mana from the lottery prize pool, if such a trader exists. Otherwise, the lottery falls through till next time.

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This paper is basically the same as the paper in /ttoe/how-will-i-rate-vilenkin-1984-free , just slightly longer, and my rating stays the same.

Soundness: 30

Ingenuity: 40

Presentation: 60

Significance: 50

Overall (average): 45

--- RESOLUTION PROOF ---

Market        : /ttoe/how-will-i-rate-vilenkin-1985-free

Draw Source   : closeTime (1789443120000 ms)

Draw Time     : 2026-09-15 03:32:00 UTC (2026-09-14 23:32:00 EDT ET)

Target Range  : 1 to 100

NIST API Link : https://beacon.nist.gov/beacon/2.0/pulse/time/1789443120000

Pulse Index   : 1941926

Pulse Time    : 2026-09-15T03:32:00.000Z

Output Hex    : BA62A0F2F302307AA7347FC76BD40C20EA4D7CE97FF4F9DDB80B14CF64A0EA00B2BB84475AAF7D6430ED67C267B8EAAC614F671F0333C3143BFEBB1C18AAD0ED

Formula       : (Decimal_Value % 100) + 1

Decimal_Value : 9761788591819378739118829292483815883403108687561526632907592911914493075592303181305476142610265146978632738256841000755440791734174356730123728022327533

FINAL RESULT  : 34

Verify        : open the NIST API Link above,

               compute int(outputValue, 16) % 100 + 1

No 34th unique trader: only 10 unique bettor(s) on this market.