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MANIFOLD
How will I rate Vilenkin 1984? (+free lottery)
6
Ṁ10kṀ12
resolved Sep 15
Resolved as
45%

Resolution

This market will resolve to x%. Number x will be my personal rating of the following literature on a 0-100 scale after studying it in more detail.

Vilenkin (1984) "Quantum creation of universes"

Free Lottery

After the market closes, I will generate a random number M among 1 to 100 using this algorithm. The Mth unique trader of this market wins 300 mana from the lottery prize pool, if such a trader exists. Otherwise, the lottery falls through till next time.

For free play, make a trade with 1 mana and sell it. Your trade will be recorded and you will become a unique trader.

Past winners

@PaperBoy 100Ṁ

@hogshedges 100Ṁ

@Pancarre 300Ṁ

@wolf 400Ṁ

@Chumchulum 200Ṁ

@KarlWang 4000Ṁ

@WobertqUIQz 300Ṁ

@2ndPairofBoots 300Ṁ

@jbm 300Ṁ

@AritificialJudgement 300Ṁ

@Primer 300Ṁ

@Brierbr 300Ṁ

@DaleKirkwood 300Ṁ

@WobertqUIQz 300Ṁ (second time winner)

@Chimpy 300Ṁ

@Chimpy 300Ṁ (second time winner)

@dawxgBot 300Ṁ

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ0
2Ṁ0
3Ṁ0
4Ṁ0
5Ṁ0
Sort by:

Soundness: 30

Ingenuity: 40

Presentation: 60

Significance: 50

Overall (average): 45

--- RESOLUTION PROOF ---

Market        : /ttoe/how-will-i-rate-vilenkin-1984-free

Draw Source   : closeTime (1789355340000 ms)

Draw Time     : 2026-09-14 03:09:00 UTC (2026-09-13 23:09:00 EDT ET)

Target Range  : 1 to 100

NIST API Link : https://beacon.nist.gov/beacon/2.0/pulse/time/1789355340000

Pulse Index   : 1940463

Pulse Time    : 2026-09-14T03:09:00.000Z

Output Hex    : CA75929F40B335CA6376DB0D54579727B928AC5C54ECA3A707E06557C69E88407A72F539F56FDAB68C8F2287FBA52577B014B068D2E9AD73DC5EA73E165ED8C6

Formula       : (Decimal_Value % 100) + 1

Decimal_Value : 10603652289161380822877880623279878451149924752909031709996545922357573480825852964576283508739297686349109136442983265896750400381451391758572964609448134

FINAL RESULT  : 35

Verify        : open the NIST API Link above,

               compute int(outputValue, 16) % 100 + 1

No 35th unique trader: only 6 unique bettor(s) on this market.