Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if the scientific consensus confirms the Local Hole's existence through peer-reviewed literature, major astronomical surveys (2MASS, SDSS, DESI), and statements from leading cosmological institutions. It resolves NO if substantial evidence emerges contradicting the Local Hole hypothesis or if the scientific community reaches consensus that the observed underdensity is inconsistent with observations.

Background

The Local Hole (KBC Void) is a proposed underdensity roughly 2 billion light-years in diameter containing the Milky Way, Local Group, and most of the Laniakea Supercluster. The local universe within 300 megaparsecs is proposed to be 15–50% less dense than surrounding areas. Some researchers suggest this structure explains the Hubble tension—the discrepancy between supernovae/Cepheid measurements (72–75 km/s/Mpc) and CMB/BAO measurements (67–68 km/s/Mpc).

Considerations

The void's consistency with the ΛCDM model remains contested. Recent BAO data presented at NAM 2025 favored a void model by ~10^8 times over void-free alternatives consistent with Planck cosmology. However, other observations find the claimed underdensity scale incompatible with data extending beyond the proposed void region, creating genuine scientific disagreement about whether the Local Hole exists.