Big Mysteries in Physics Survey - Fate of Matter Inside a Black Hole
4
Ṁ150Ṁ612027
16%
It is crushed into a singularity
21%
A black hole is in reality a "fuzzball," a quantum object that doesn't have an event horizon.
16%
It bounces out into our universe
11%
It bounces out into another universe
10%
Other
26%
No opinion
Background. American Physical Society is holding a Big Mysteries in Physics Survey ( https://physics.aps.org/articles/v18/140) on the toughest questions facing physicists today. One among the questions is posed in this market.
Resolution. This market will resolve to the survey result (in percentages) once it becomes available to the public.
Consideration. For reference, the survey result for the same question at a physics conference held in 2024 is shown below (https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.15776). See also https://youtu.be/e7Rq_Vjhqu4?feature=shared

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Big Mysteries in Physics Survey - Quantum Gravity
Big Mysteries in Physics Survey - Hubble Tension
What will be the fate of the universe?
Do we live inside a black hole?
14% chance
Are naked singularities from spinning black holes physically possible?
23% chance
Observational Evidence for Non-Singular Black Hole
7% chance