The Blackhawks rookie is supposed to be a generational talent. Will he show what he is made of by the end of November 2023?
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Napkin math for priors with 5 games remaining for the Blackhaws in November:
In the post-lockout era, the record for hat tricks in a season is 5 (Cheechoo '06) with several players managing 4 (Vanek, Staal, Semin, Stafford, Ovechkin, Pastrnak, Matthews, Thompson). If we assume Bedard is a 4-hat-trick-per-season-player and assume that each game has an independent 4/82 probability of a hat trick, the probability of Bedard scoring a hat trick in any of the remaining 5 games in November is 1-(1-4/82)^5 = 22.1%. Assuming he's Gretzky '82 or '84 at 10 per season bumps the probability to 47.8%, while assuming he's McDavid '18 or Crosby '10 at 3 per season drops it to 17.0%. Additionally, the post-lockout record for hat tricks by a rookie is 3 (DeBrincat '18, Laine '17).