Will BGE-102 significantly reduce hsCRP in BioAge's Phase 2 QUELL-CV trial?

Background

BGE-102 is a potent, structurally novel, orally available, brain-penetrant small-molecule NLRP3 inhibitor discovered by BioAge Labs, Inc. (Nasdaq: BIOA). NLRP3 drives age-related chronic inflammation implicated in cardiovascular disease, metabolic disorders, and neurodegenerative conditions; BioAge has said its discovery platform nominated NLRP3 from analysis of human aging cohorts in which lower NLRP3 activity tracked with greater longevity (Aug 15, 2025). The company has also stated that its compounds engage a binding site and mechanism distinct from other NLRP3 inhibitors in development, with a composition-of-matter patent covering that site issued in January 2026 (Jan 12, 2026). Cardiovascular risk reduction is the lead indication.

This market concerns the QUELL-CV primary endpoint only. It does not concern the magnitude of the hsCRP effect, safety or tolerability findings, regulatory approval ( FDA or otherwise ), Phase 3 initiation, QUELL-DME, the APJ programs, or BIOA share price.

This market resolves Yes if BioAge Labs reports that at least one evaluated dose of BGE-102 demonstrates a statistically significant reduction versus placebo in the primary endpoint of the Phase 2 QUELL-CV clinical trial.

The primary endpoint is the percent change from baseline in high-sensitivity C-reactive protein ("hsCRP") after 12 weeks of treatment.

The trial is registered as NCT07656727 and evaluates once-daily oral BGE-102 in participants with obesity, elevated systemic inflammation, and additional cardiovascular risk factors.

This market will resolve based on results publicly reported before January 1, 2028. This deadline is one year after the end of BioAge's currently anticipated topline-results window of the second half of 2026.

Yes resolution

The market resolves Yes if all of the following conditions are satisfied:

• At least one BGE-102 dose demonstrates a greater reduction in hsCRP than placebo at Week 12;

• The difference versus placebo is statistically significant under the trial's prespecified statistical analysis, including any applicable multiplicity adjustments; and

• The result is reported as part of the trial's primary analysis, rather than only as an exploratory, post hoc, sensitivity, or subgroup analysis.

A result qualifies if BioAge reports that at least one dose:

• Met the primary endpoint;

• Achieved statistical significance on the primary endpoint; or

• Produced a statistically significant placebo-adjusted reduction in hsCRP at Week 12.

If exact p-values are not disclosed, an explicit statement from BioAge that the primary endpoint was met or that the result was statistically significant will be sufficient for a Yes resolution.

Only one dose must satisfy these criteria. Other BGE-102 doses may fail to achieve statistical significance without preventing a Yes resolution.

No resolution

The market resolves No if any of the following occurs:

• BioAge reports that no BGE-102 dose achieved a statistically significant reduction in hsCRP versus placebo on the primary analysis;

• BioAge states that the trial failed or did not meet its primary endpoint;

• Any observed hsCRP reduction is numerical but not statistically significant;

• Statistical significance is found only in a subgroup, post hoc analysis, sensitivity analysis, or analysis that was not part of the prespecified primary analysis;

• Statistical significance is achieved only after combining dose groups, unless the combined-dose analysis was itself a prespecified primary comparison;

• The QUELL-CV trial is permanently terminated before producing an evaluable primary-endpoint result;

• BioAge permanently discontinues BGE-102 development without announcing an evaluable QUELL-CV primary-endpoint result; or

• No qualifying result has been publicly reported by 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time on December 31, 2027.

A trial termination or program discontinuation resolves the market No only when an official source describes the action as permanent. A temporary pause, clinical hold, enrollment delay, strategic review, or delayed data announcement will not resolve the market before the deadline.

Results that do not independently qualify

The following do not independently cause a Yes resolution:

• A reduction in hsCRP within a BGE-102 treatment group without a statistically significant comparison against placebo;

• A statistically significant change from baseline that is not also statistically significant versus placebo;

• A greater proportion of participants reaching hsCRP levels below 2 mg/L;

• Improvements in IL-6, fibrinogen, metabolic markers, imaging biomarkers, body weight, or other secondary or exploratory endpoints;

• Evidence of a dose-response trend that does not include a statistically significant individual-dose comparison against placebo;

• Positive safety or tolerability results;

• Results from BioAge's earlier Phase 1 trial;

• Results from QUELL-DME or another BGE-102 clinical trial;

• Statements that the results are "encouraging," "promising," "clinically meaningful," or "support further development" without confirmation of statistical significance on the primary endpoint.

Special cases

If one dose achieves statistical significance but the sponsor selects a different dose for further development, the market resolves Yes.

If the trial meets the primary endpoint but fails one or more secondary endpoints, the market resolves Yes.

If BioAge reports that the primary endpoint was met but subsequently issues a correction stating that it was not met, the corrected result will control, provided the correction is issued before the market has been formally resolved.

If BioAge reports topline results without enough information to determine statistical significance and does not expressly state whether the primary endpoint was met, the market will remain open pending additional official results or the resolution deadline.

If the trial's protocol or statistical analysis plan is amended before database lock and unblinding, the final prespecified significance threshold and multiplicity procedure may be used. A post hoc change made after results are known will not qualify.

Resolution sources

Resolution will be based primarily on:

• Official BioAge Labs press releases, investor presentations, earnings materials, or SEC filings;

• Results posted to the ClinicalTrials.gov record for NCT07656727;

• A peer-reviewed publication presenting the trial's primary results; or

• An official scientific-conference presentation of the QUELL-CV primary analysis.

Official BioAge disclosures will control when the company clearly states whether the primary endpoint was met. If BioAge's description conflicts with subsequently published detailed statistical results, the final ClinicalTrials.gov results submission or peer-reviewed primary publication will control.