Will at least five people on Manifold accuse @IsaacKing in good faith of bias by the end of May?
closes Jun 1

Recently a bunch of people have accused @IsaacKing of being biased in his favor on the WvM market. Many of these claims that I've seen so far are not easy to dismiss.

To access whether Isaac is biased, and provide a platform where Isaac and disucssion with people on a neutral ground , I created this market and opens up the comment section for everyone to participate. (I will not take part in raising accusation or defending Isaac. I'll only comment when moderation is needed)

Resolve to Yes if 5 or more people accuse @IsaacKing in good faith of bias by the end of May.

I will use my judgement on whether a accusation of Isaac's bias is in good faith. If there's hot debate about whether an accusation is valid for this question, I will bring it to a trustworthy-ish user and delegate the decision to him.

(Alt accounts excluded, accounts less than 1 month old excluded )

Sort by:
MayMeta avatar
MayMetabought Ṁ10 of NO

@tornado What's the current count? 👀

tornado avatar

@MayMeta basing off the comments in the WvM market and discord, I counted 8 plausible accusations already. Of course some of my personal judgement is involved

If anyone is oppose to resolving this to yes, please let me know here within the next 24 hours

JosephNoonan avatar
Joseph Noonanbought Ṁ35 of YES

@tornado You could post a list of the 8 accusations here, since that would make it easier for people to evaluate whether they agree. I assume one of them is my comment below, but the others are in different locations, so it would be useful to have them all in the comments section here.

tornado avatar

@JosephNoonan To be honest It's a little hard for me to dig back all the specific accusations now. when I mentioned the list of individuals previously @KongoLandwalker @Gen @MarcusAbramovitch @higherLEVELING @Catnee @CodeandSolder @JosephNoonan

Unless 3 or more of these individuals told me they did not ever accuse Isaac King of bias I'm goin to resolve this to Yes.

MayMeta avatar
MayMetabought Ṁ3,700 of YES

@tornado More than a week has passed and none of the listed individuals seem to go back on their accusations. I think this market can resolve to YES.

tornado avatar

@KongoLandwalker @Gen @MarcusAbramovitch @higherLEVELING @Catnee @CodeandSolder @JosephNoonan
(I tagged people who have made comments in WvM market / related discord that could potentially qualify as "accusing @IsaacKing in good faith of bias" here)

While memories of the WvM market are still fresh, please let us know if you have accused Isaac in good faith of bias. You can reference your previous comment if you want, or simply let us know that you have made such an accusation.
If you have not made any such accusations in public, I would also appreciate it if you make it known here.

Thank you for your time in advance.

Gen avatar
Genzybought Ṁ800 of YES
JosephNoonan avatar
Joseph Noonan

@tornado Hmm, I definitely made statements disagreeing with him on the WvM resolution criteria and arguing that he shouldn't have dismissed some of the interpretations that differed from his so quickly. I don't know if I said anything that qualifies as accusing him of bias, though.

That being said, I think he was probably falling prey to the illusion of transparency when arguing over the WvM resolution criteria: He knew what he intended when he wrote the description, and he thought it would be more obvious to everyone else than it actually was, so he assumed that many of the people arguing against him were doing so in bad faith when they actually had reasonable interpretations of the description. It also seemed like he was interpreting some people's statements as hostile in that discussion when they were not meant to be. I don't blame him too much for that, given that some people really were being hostile, but it still counts as bias.

So there, I guess that will make it easier to know if I count or not.

PatMyron avatar
Pat Myronbought Ṁ20 of YES

I'm banned from commenting on Isaac's markets, so thanks for making this. I laid my bias accusations out here:


I'll just link them and I won't repeat them here, but I still stand by them

SimonGrayson avatar
Simon Grayson

Since this market suggests a much lower chance of @IsaacKing finding that at least five people are accusing him of bias in good faith, does that mean that the market as a whole is accusing them of bias or corruption?

Gen avatar

@SimonGrayson Yes, he interprets any accusations of bias as bad faith, which is why this market is way higher

Nobody trusts him to resolve it fairly - his judgement is beyond impaired

tornado avatar

A similar market first created by Isaac

Related markets

Will at least five FTXers be charged?64%
Will @IsaacKing do an AMA on reddit ?8%
Will any prominent e/accs switch sides to Notkilleveryoneism after examining the arguments in detail?81%
Will Mr Girl claim that he has a lot more evidence that he couldn't put in the manifesto?5%
Will Jonathan Majors be found guilty of assault?57%
Will BloomTech (formerly Lambda School) be found guilty of misrepresenting student outcomes?63%
Will Manchester City be found guilty?62%
Will Mike Alfred's claims about First Republic Bank (FRC) prove accurate?6%
Will anyone mentioned in Mr Girl's manifesto claim to be swatted following its release?12%
Will any of the officers be found guilty of murder in the case of Tyre Nichols?81%
Will there be good evidence that the Allen Texas mall shooter, Mauricio Garcia was influenced by political commentators?59%
Will MrGirl reach out to Keffals for his article?6%
Will the four APSP activists be sentenced?31%
Conditional on Tower writing his infamous Catholicism posts in the next year, will they convert at least one person in the year following?8%
Will there be good evidence that the Allen Texas mall shooter, Mauricio Garcia was racially motivated?80%
Will someone be convicted for incidents related to the death of Jordan Neely?55%
Will Adept be able to prove in court that XQC sent Destiny confidential documents?14%
Will any prominent Notkilleveryoneists switch sides to e/acc after learning more about machine learning R&D?7%
Will Brian Kohberger be found guilty?94%
Will at least one FTX exec disappear?31%