Resolves the same way as the corresponding Metaculus question. Its description is copied below:

Google Brain introduced the Transformer model in 2017 and advanced it further in 2018, which have become the basis of Large Language Models (LLMs). More recently, Google Brain announced an LLM called PaLM and Deep Mind announced Gopher.

None of these models have been publicly available, however, unlike OpenAI's ChatGPT (public, free, but no API) or OpenAI's GPT-3 (public, paid, has an API). Google has shared an "AI Test Kitchen" in 2022 with an LLM called LaMDA, but available only to limited partners.

On Dec 21, 2022, Business Insider reported Google declared a "Code Red" about the rising popularity of ChatGPT.

This question resolves as Yes if Google or DeepMind provide a public API (free or paid) for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023. Otherwise, it resolves as No.

Fine print

• Whether a model is a Large Language Model will be judged by Metaculus according to information from credible sources, but generally speaking, any very large (>10B parameter) model using Transformer architecture that has scores on standard NLP benchmarks at least as high as GPT-3 will count.

• "Public" here means not a private beta - while there may be a waitlist or rate limiting, members of the public must be able to sign up and use it.