3
How will the ACX/Manifund Forecasting Impact Mini-Grants oracular funding be distributed?
6
closes Sep 1
Superforecaster predictions of long-term impacts15%
OPTIC12%
Kelly bets on Manifold8%
Interpretable Forecasting with Transformers5%
Crystal Ballin' Podcast5%
Base Rate Times4%
Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reporting4%
Comparing forecasting platform accuracy4%
Earthquake Risk3%
College Majors3%
Rationality education at the University of Maryland1.0%
This market resolves proportionally to how the retroactive funding gets distributed (e.g. if project A gets $20,000 in retroactive funding, B gets $10,000, and C gets $10,000, then this market resolves 50% A, 25% B, and 25% C).
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do we know that the distribution will be made public? i don’t remember reading that anywhere…
Tоm answered
Crystal Ballin' Podcast
Tоm answered
OPTIC
Tоm answered
Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reporting
Tоm answered
Earthquake Risk
Tоm answered
College Majors
Tоm answered
Superforecaster predictions of long-term impacts
Tоm answered
Interpretable Forecasting with Transformers
Tоm answered
Comparing forecasting platform accuracy
Related markets
Will projects funded via Manifund be able to issue additional impact certificates for sale on the platform in 2023?66%
When the current $500k grant for Manifold For Charity runs out, will the charity program continue (with 100 mana = $1)28%
When the current $500k grant for Manifold For Charity runs out, will the charity program continue?60%
Will Manifold get a better Brier score than the median answers of Blind Mode participants in the ACX 2023 prediction contest?87%
Will Manifold get a better Brier score than the mean answers of Blind Mode participants in the ACX 2023 prediction contest?87%
Will I create at least 100 additional self-described high-quality Manifold markets before June 1st 2023?15%
Will manifold create a new type of market that combines quadratic funding with free answers betting before 2024?17%
If someone investigates Manifold's accuracy before and after charity donations were turned off, will they find a significant decrease?35%
Related markets
Will projects funded via Manifund be able to issue additional impact certificates for sale on the platform in 2023?66%
When the current $500k grant for Manifold For Charity runs out, will the charity program continue (with 100 mana = $1)28%
When the current $500k grant for Manifold For Charity runs out, will the charity program continue?60%
Will Manifold get a better Brier score than the median answers of Blind Mode participants in the ACX 2023 prediction contest?87%
Will Manifold get a better Brier score than the mean answers of Blind Mode participants in the ACX 2023 prediction contest?87%
Will I create at least 100 additional self-described high-quality Manifold markets before June 1st 2023?15%
Will manifold create a new type of market that combines quadratic funding with free answers betting before 2024?17%
If someone investigates Manifold's accuracy before and after charity donations were turned off, will they find a significant decrease?35%