How will the ACX/Manifund Forecasting Impact Mini-Grants oracular funding be distributed?

820Ṁ102

resolved Oct 23

33%21%

OPTIC

27%0.7%

Rationality education at the University of Maryland

25%5%

Kelly bets on Manifold

7%13%

Superforecaster predictions of long-term impacts

3%4%

Comparing forecasting platform accuracy

2%4%

Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reporting

1%17%

Crystal Ballin' Podcast

1%3%

Interpretable Forecasting with Transformers

1%1.8%

College Majors

0%1.8%

Earthquake Risk

25%Other

Base Rate Times

This market resolves proportionally to how the retroactive funding gets distributed (e.g. if project A gets $20,000 in retroactive funding, B gets $10,000, and C gets $10,000, then this market resolves 50% A, 25% B, and 25% C).

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Results are out! I'm going to go with the final final results, rather than the final results. I'm going to leave the market unresolved for at least another week (since I do think this is ambiguous) if anyone has counterarguments.

@toms Out of the included options, Crystal Ballin' got 1%, OPTIC got 33%, UoM education got 27%, Kelly Bets got 25%, superforecaster predictions got 7%, comparing platforms got 3%, college majors got 1%, earthquakes got 0.45%, interpretable AI forecasts got 1%, and standardized tools got 2%. Full calculations here. Let me know if I got anything wrong, and I'll do my best to make it right.