How will the ACX/Manifund Forecasting Impact Mini-Grants oracular funding be distributed?
7
274
resolved Oct 23
33%21%
OPTIC
27%0.7%
Rationality education at the University of Maryland
25%5%
Kelly bets on Manifold
7%13%
Superforecaster predictions of long-term impacts
3%4%
Comparing forecasting platform accuracy
2%4%
Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reporting
1%17%
Crystal Ballin' Podcast
1%1.8%
College Majors
1%3%
Interpretable Forecasting with Transformers
0%1.8%
Earthquake Risk
3%
Base Rate Times

This market resolves proportionally to how the retroactive funding gets distributed (e.g. if project A gets $20,000 in retroactive funding, B gets $10,000, and C gets $10,000, then this market resolves 50% A, 25% B, and 25% C).

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Results are out! I'm going to go with the final final results, rather than the final results. I'm going to leave the market unresolved for at least another week (since I do think this is ambiguous) if anyone has counterarguments.

@toms Out of the included options, Crystal Ballin' got 1%, OPTIC got 33%, UoM education got 27%, Kelly Bets got 25%, superforecaster predictions got 7%, comparing platforms got 3%, college majors got 1%, earthquakes got 0.45%, interpretable AI forecasts got 1%, and standardized tools got 2%. Full calculations here. Let me know if I got anything wrong, and I'll do my best to make it right.

do we know that the distribution will be made public? i don’t remember reading that anywhere…

answered
Crystal Ballin' Podcast
answered
OPTIC
answered
Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reporting
answered
Superforecaster predictions of long-term impacts
answered
Interpretable Forecasting with Transformers
answered
Comparing forecasting platform accuracy