By the end of 1-1-2024, will I have created a prediction market for every like my tweet received in 2023?
resolved Jan 1

The tweet in question:

If the resolution is in question, this market resolves NO. I may bet YES on this market, but I will not bet NO or sell YES shares.

All dates are Pacific time.

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bought Ṁ60 of YES

88 followers * 50 mana < your balance

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@toms I wish you all the best on this but I do think that, historically, “1 like = 1 something” type things rarely ever reach the promised number of somethings. In this case, your tweet (xeet?) already has 4 likes, so you need to make at least 4 markets ASAP.

predicted YES

@duck_master I think a lot of this is selection bias. The "1 like = 1 something" tweets you see are more likely to have a ton of likes, making it difficult for them to reach the promised number of things. I don't expect to get many likes, so creating a handful of markets by the end of the year seems very possible.

predicted NO

@toms You might be right after all! I'm not a Twitter/X user (and I've been waffling for years about whether I should join or not), so I don't actually know how "1 like = 1 something" tweets tend to perform in general, especially not with the current loginwall.

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