In this prediction market, we're evaluating the possible influence of the Anti-Corruption Foundation (ACF), founded by Alexey Navalny, on the 2024 presidential votes for Putin, should they avoid participation in anti-Putin campaigning.

Criteria for Market Resolution:

• N/A: If the ACF publicly instructs supporters to "vote against Putin" or endorses a specific non-Putin candidate by February 17, 2024 (1 month prior to the election date).

• YES: If Putin receives less than 64.35% of the votes (his 2012 election result) or vacates the presidency for any reason before the end of 2024.

• NO: If neither of the aforementioned scenarios transpire.

There's a counterpart market with the inverse condition, and only one will yield a non-N/A result. This approach aims to determine the potential consequences of the ACF's participation or non-participation on the election results.

Background:

Max Katz, a prominent Russian opposition media personality, advocates for joining hands with other opposition figures, such as the ACF and Khodorkovsky. He advances a "vote against Putin" strategy for the 2024 presidential elections. Given the likelihood that few genuine candidates will be permitted to run, this approach primarily serves as a protest against Putin's leadership. The campaign, mostly online, aims to diminish Putin's vote count, forcing him to resort to vote manipulation and solidifying public perception that he lacks majority support.

However, the ACF remains skeptical. They're wary of Katz's intentions and question the value of forming an opposition coalition. Their primary concern is the potential disillusionment of their supporters. Promoting a campaign with seemingly slim chances of success might demoralize activists and followers. Rather than focusing on elections that may be pre-decided, the ACF believes in the power of unmasking corruption and investing in substantial analytical endeavors. They intend to reserve judgment on their election strategy until more clarity on the 2024 election dynamics emerges.