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MANIFOLD
Which country will be the most powerful in 2050
1
Ṁ100Ṁ30
2050
63%
chance

  • Default Rule: If no country is specified by the creator, this market will resolve to YES if the United States is the most powerful country in 2050, and NO if any other country (such as China or India) holds that title.

  • Metric for "Most Powerful": By default, "most powerful" will be defined as the country with the highest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on a Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) basis for the calendar year 2050.

  • Source of Truth: The primary sources will be the official databases of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or the World Bank for 2050 GDP (PPP) data. If 2050 data is not fully compiled and published by December 31, 2051, the market will resolve using the most recent comprehensive projections or preliminary data for 2050 published by these institutions.

  • Creator Customization: The creator is encouraged to edit these criteria to specify their preferred target country, source of truth, or alternative metric (e.g., nominal GDP, military expenditure, or a specific Comprehensive National Power index).

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