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MANIFOLD
How many states will have every county won by the 2024 Democratic presidential candidate?
8
αΉ€245αΉ€456
resolved Nov 13
100%90%
3
0.8%
1 or less
6%
2
3%
4
1.1%
5+

Looking at you, HI, MA, RI, VT, NH, ??

Resolves according to the Wikipedia page for the 2024 US presidential election: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election

Market context
US Politics
Politics
2024 US Presidential Election
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2αΉ€67
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bought αΉ€300 YES

@themightysalmon MA, RI, HI is 3. CT loses its northeast county, same with VT and NH

@sn Just so. Resolves to 3.

bought αΉ€25 YES

Hopping in again. β€œ3” is looking a little low, given that was the answer in 2020.

2020 for reference:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/fb/2020_United_States_presidential_election_results_map_by_county.svg/1920px-2020_United_States_presidential_election_results_map_by_county.svg.png

Sam Bogerd boughtαΉ€40 YES

2020 for reference:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/fb/2020_United_States_presidential_election_results_map_by_county.svg/1920px-2020_United_States_presidential_election_results_map_by_county.svg.png

I’m jumping in and betting on β€œ2”, the only choice with no action so far.

β€œ2” only had 14%, and the answer was β€œ2” as recently as 2016, so 14% just seems too low.

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