https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1824839784852013125
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/08/17/x-brazil-musk-moraes-judge/
Elon has claimed that Brazil's Supreme Court judge Alexandre de Moraes has made numerous censorship orders, which X refused to follow. Following that, de Moraes supposedly ordered the Supreme Court to threaten X employees with judicial retaliation.
In response, Elon has decided to close the X offices in Brazil, meaning that the company will have no judicial representation in Brazil through a corporate entity, although the service will remain accessible unless blocked.
There is no specific law in Brazil (as far as I understand - IANAL) that requires social networks available in Brazil to have a Brazilian corporate entity representing them, but Brazilian lawmakers and court officials seem quite dissatisfied with this.
This market will resolve YES if, at any moment in the month of August 2024, X becomes inaccessible to Brazilian IPs due to a court order.
This market will be resolved based on Brasília time (GMT-3), so if X first becomes unavailable in Brazil between now and 2024-09-01 02:59:59 GMT this will resolve YES. Otherwise, it will resolve NO.
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de Moraes just passed a... very confusing amendment to his original order to block Twitter in Brazil
which seems to suspend Twitter from being blocked, but I am not sure at all and I am not sure anyone understands what is going on
https://www-terra-com-br.translate.goog/noticias/brasil/politica/moraes-recua-de-decisao-que-bloqueava-download-do-x-e-de-aplicativos-de-vpn,dd72337152368de47bae4158948d28bek0u29f2q.html?_x_tr_sl=pt&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=pt-BR&_x_tr_pto=wapp
@the_coproduct NYT thinks the order is still in effect, just without the VPN & app removal stuff, but admit they're also confused.
People across Brazil quickly criticized the measure against VPNs, and about three hours later, Justice Moraes amended the order to cut the VPN language as well as his orders to Apple, Google and internet providers.
As a result, it appears the order now relies on the telecom agency to force internet and cell-service providers to block access to X, said Carlos Affonso Souza, a Brazilian internet-law professor. “He probably received some pushback on how extreme the decision on VPNs was,” Mr. Souza said of Justice Moraes. “We’re in a very confusing situation.”
It will become clear in the coming days whether that approach works. X was still online in Brazil by Friday night.
It is not the first time Brazilian authorities have blocked an online service for ignoring court orders. Yet such blocks have usually lasted just days before a company has reversed course and complied. That was the case in 2022, when Justice Moraes blocked the messaging app Telegram for a weekend.
Mr. Belli, the law professor, said he expected the same with Mr. Musk and X. “My bet is that he might be blocked for a couple of days, and then will comply and portray himself as a victim,” Mr. Belli said.
Ignore this comment
https://g1-globo-com.translate.goog/politica/noticia/2024/08/30/moraes-suspende-o-x-no-brasil-apos-rede-nao-designar-um-representante-legal-no-pais.ghtml
Moraes just ordered the National Telecommunications Agency (Anatel) to block X within the next 24 hours. Anatel should then order ISP's to perform the blocking.
For clarification, this market uses Brazilian time (GMT-3)
So if X first becomes unavailable in Brazil between now and 2024-09-01 02:59:59 GMT this will resolve YES
Otherwise, it will resolve NO
Related market with shorter closing time: https://manifold.markets/duck_master/will-xtwitter-be-banned-in-brazil-t
Brazil's Supreme Court just ordered Elon to appoint a new representative for X in Brazil within the next 24 hours, under penalty of X being blocked.
Funnily enough, they did it on X.
https://x.com/STF_oficial/status/1828932387117392265?s=09