Will the average weight of Americans decrease between 2024 and 2025
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Plus
60
Ṁ3903
2026
52%
chance

I am still determining the best polls to measure this. The idea is that widespread weight loss drug use will or will not have some kind of impact at the level of society.

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Suggested resolution criteria (Written by GPT-4o:

Resolution Criteria

1. Data Sources:

• The primary sources of data will be the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and reports from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

• If available, supplementary data may be considered from large-scale health studies conducted by reputable institutions such as the National Institutes of Health (NIH) or peer-reviewed medical journals.

2. Measurement Period:

• Data must be collected for the entire calendar year of 2024 and the entire calendar year of 2025.

• Interim or partial-year data will not be considered.

3. Population:

• The data must cover a representative sample of the entire U.S. adult population, ages 18 and over.

• Data should be adjusted for demographic variables including age, gender, and ethnicity to ensure it accurately reflects the population.

@ElliotDavies These are great ideas

I might bet on this question if the resolution criteria gets better defined.

If we take a true average over the population, it seems like it will be mainly driven by kids aging rather than weight-loss drugs

@SaviorofPlant Agree, this will be dominated by demographic changes.

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