If I get the $200 OpenAI subscription, will it help me make $200? Will it pay for itself?
160
1kṀ18k
Mar 11
35%
chance

Background

OpenAI recently introduced a $200/month ChatGPT Pro subscription tier, which includes advanced features like research and operator.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if I am able to generate at least $200 in additional income that can be directly attributed to using the ChatGPT Pro subscription features within the first month of subscription. This includes:

  • Revenue from projects or work completed using Pro features

  • Cost reductions in existing expenses

The market will resolve NO if:

  • I fail to generate $200 in measurable value within the first month

Considerations

  • Success will largely depend on my ability to effectively leverage the advanced features for revenue-generating activities

  • The $200 threshold must be reached through new or additional income/savings, not from existing revenue streams

  • While the subscription includes powerful features, monetization requires active effort to create value from the tool

  • Results may vary significantly based on use case and implementation strategy

  • Update 2025-02-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Time Valuation:

    • The creator is currently unemployed and assigns a value of 0 to time spent, meaning that time investment will not be factored as a cost.

Expense Deduction:

  • Any direct monetary expense incurred as a result of using ChatGPT Pro (for example, purchasing AWS storage) will be deducted from the net generated income.

  • Update 2025-02-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Exclusions:

    • Benefits like food stamps will not be included in the $200 calculation.

Verification Requirement:

  • Only revenue that is confirmed via a voice-based phone interview will count toward the $200 threshold.

  • Update 2025-02-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Advanced Subscription Features Only:

    • Only revenue generated from deep research, operator, and sora—features exclusive to the $200 subscription—will be considered.

    • Any income generated using free tier or lower tier capabilities is excluded.

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Update: I have the subscription

you might be wondering why i haven’t closed the market given the month has passed. the truth is i have a couple bets out that i have yet to hear back about. in particular food stamp and this one sale. i will wait for these to close the market but anything i make with the subscription from now on doesn’t count.

will you compare other tools? Do you try deep research by google/grok too, or image generation by imagen? I'm worried that you may use it and think it's good without trying other free/cheaper services, and market will resolve to yes just because AI tools in general helped you

@eamag ok I see what you are saying, but taking the cross product between all possible tools I could use at all price points and all possible prompt combinations I could have used is just not tractable. I will make sure I am super clear what made the money in the end, and other people can see if these cheaper tools would have worked. I haven’t seen any other browser users and that has been my main money making tool so far.

@tftftftftftftftftftftftf ok I will test stuff against google deep research that seems fair

Have you asked it about your Internet and phone bills?

@AndrewMcKnight ok I will try that now

If the $200 subscription allows making >= $200, but the same result could have been achieved using OpenAI's free tier or the $20 subscription, will the market resolve as YES?

@bessarabov as clarified below I am not using any free tier features. So I am only using deep research and operator and sora.

@tftftftftftftftftftftftf I don’t want to go through and re-verify if it could have been done with free

How will you handle cases where it helps you make money, but it also requires time investment from your side? Say for example that it helps you earn 300 USD from a project, but you have to spend one day setting up that project.

@SimoneRomeo I’m currently unemployed so I’m treating my time as 0 but my money as 1. So if it convinces me to buy a bunch of aws storage I will deduct that cost from the net.

@tftftftftftftftftftftftf do you consider earnings even if operator does actions that you could have done yourself in less time? For example, if operator spends 40 hours to click stuff on the web, in the process it makes 100 EUR, but you could have brainstormed with an open source model and clicked that stuff yourself in less time and earn the same.

@SimoneRomeo good question. I don’t think I could stand up operator with an OS model. Maybe someone could but I can’t.

@tftftftftftftftftftftftf what I mean I that you can click links yourself. Chatgpt can recommend what you should do and you can click what chatGPT suggests. This can be much faster than waiting for operator to click. My experience with operator is that it takes more time than it saves to you, so even if it might be able to earn money, I think you'd be better off just doing work yourself.

bought Ṁ50 YES

The AI image for this market was actually pretty good

Operator just applied for food stamps for me! Value is appx 300$ if I spend it on food

@tftftftftftftftftftftftf I just want to not that this isn’t a market closing event because the application hasn’t been approved yet

@tftftftftftftftftftftftf Are you eligible?

@Predictor I didn’t realize I was but I guess I am!

@tftftftftftftftftftftftf I guess that fits with the job search mentions, congrats!

@tftftftftftftftftftftftf I am not including this in the 200- a voice based phone interview is required

@tftftftftftftftftftftftf why does a voice based phone interview disqualify the 200?

@iicaptaineye Exactly, I would say that just being given the idea that you qualify is sufficient. But I’m not arguing today.

@tftftftftftftftftftftftf I am surprised a bit that you disqualify that. Title says “will it help make $200” and it sounds like it does help?

If an AI tells me "hey you should start a company" and, then I go start a company and make a billion dollars, did the AI make me a billion dollars?

@tftftftftftftftftftftftf oh yeah i guess that is true. the food stamps interview was not ai passable tho.

@IsaacKing i mean i would say it helped me. obviously not if it just said "go start a company", but if it gave me some substantive steps to follow and unique ideas, i think it should qualify at least for the purposes of this market

If someone gives me one penny, and then I make $199.99 in some other way, they have helped me make $200. That is obviously not what this market is about. The title is very explicit about this.

@IsaacKing i don't see the relevance of your reply. you referred to the title. if she paid $200, and she values her time at $0, she could follow through with the phone interview and make up to $300 to spend on food. this clearly qualifies as the subscription paying for itself. where does the one penny come into this?

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