If I get the $200 OpenAI subscription, will it help me make $200? Will it pay for itself?
164
1kṀ24k
resolved Mar 20
Resolved
NO

Background

OpenAI recently introduced a $200/month ChatGPT Pro subscription tier, which includes advanced features like research and operator.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if I am able to generate at least $200 in additional income that can be directly attributed to using the ChatGPT Pro subscription features within the first month of subscription. This includes:

  • Revenue from projects or work completed using Pro features

  • Cost reductions in existing expenses

The market will resolve NO if:

  • I fail to generate $200 in measurable value within the first month

Considerations

  • Success will largely depend on my ability to effectively leverage the advanced features for revenue-generating activities

  • The $200 threshold must be reached through new or additional income/savings, not from existing revenue streams

  • While the subscription includes powerful features, monetization requires active effort to create value from the tool

  • Results may vary significantly based on use case and implementation strategy

  • Update 2025-02-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Time Valuation:

    • The creator is currently unemployed and assigns a value of 0 to time spent, meaning that time investment will not be factored as a cost.

Expense Deduction:

  • Any direct monetary expense incurred as a result of using ChatGPT Pro (for example, purchasing AWS storage) will be deducted from the net generated income.

  • Update 2025-02-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Exclusions:

    • Benefits like food stamps will not be included in the $200 calculation.

Verification Requirement:

  • Only revenue that is confirmed via a voice-based phone interview will count toward the $200 threshold.

  • Update 2025-02-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Advanced Subscription Features Only:

    • Only revenue generated from deep research, operator, and sora—features exclusive to the $200 subscription—will be considered.

    • Any income generated using free tier or lower tier capabilities is excluded.

  • Update 2025-03-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Extended Trial Period: The evaluation period for revenue generation is now extended by one month.

    • New Timeframe: Revenue may be assessed over a period longer than the original one-month window.

    • Food Stamps Exclusion Reaffirmed: The creator notes that heavy reliance on food stamps will no longer be a factor considered in reaching the $200 threshold.

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Thanks for making this market! It was fun to follow along ❤️

Ok guys this might make you mad but I am extending the trial period for a month. I think I was not using the features in the best way possible and I think it wasn’t fair to bet so heavily on food stamps. I think I can’t make it make me money I just need more time. If you are mad just give me a 1 star rating

@tftftftftftftftftftftftf why not create a new market for next month instead of changing the criteria for this one?

@tftftftftftftftftftftftf you're damn right we're mad

@tftftftftftftftftftftftf this was a cool idea for a market and it doesn’t need to be an optimized test favoring YES, I’d argue part of the point of the market seemed to be how user friendly and easily you could use the tool to accomplish the goal within the time limit. This should all be priced in.

Edit: also wouldn’t it need to make back $400 if this covers two months?

Question asked, “Will it pay for itself?”

Regardless, Criteria really clearly said, “The market will resolve NO if:

  • I fail to generate $200 in measurable value within the first month”

@LiamZ oh shoot I see that now

@tftftftftftftftftftftftf forgot I put that

@tftftftftftftftftftftftf I will also second the suggestion to just make a new market for month two. It’s a really interesting question and fun market idea.

bought Ṁ200 YES

Might be the first thing you did but have you tried talking to it a bunch at the highest level about your spending and possibilities to save money in an open ended way?

@AndrewMcKnight what’s a good question to ask? Should I just send it a bank statement?

@tftftftftftftftftftftftf my only issue is this might overlap with the unpaid or regular 20$ features

bought Ṁ50 YES

@tftftftftftftftftftftftf Just say "save money. what do?" and attach it lol. No idk exactly.

Update: operator got Me food stamps but the value of the food stamps is only 23$ a month

you might be wondering why i haven’t closed the market given the month has passed. the truth is i have a couple bets out that i have yet to hear back about. in particular food stamp and this one sale. i will wait for these to close the market but anything i make with the subscription from now on doesn’t count.

will you compare other tools? Do you try deep research by google/grok too, or image generation by imagen? I'm worried that you may use it and think it's good without trying other free/cheaper services, and market will resolve to yes just because AI tools in general helped you

@eamag ok I see what you are saying, but taking the cross product between all possible tools I could use at all price points and all possible prompt combinations I could have used is just not tractable. I will make sure I am super clear what made the money in the end, and other people can see if these cheaper tools would have worked. I haven’t seen any other browser users and that has been my main money making tool so far.

@tftftftftftftftftftftftf ok I will test stuff against google deep research that seems fair

Have you asked it about your Internet and phone bills?

@AndrewMcKnight ok I will try that now

If the $200 subscription allows making >= $200, but the same result could have been achieved using OpenAI's free tier or the $20 subscription, will the market resolve as YES?

@bessarabov as clarified below I am not using any free tier features. So I am only using deep research and operator and sora.

@tftftftftftftftftftftftf I don’t want to go through and re-verify if it could have been done with free

How will you handle cases where it helps you make money, but it also requires time investment from your side? Say for example that it helps you earn 300 USD from a project, but you have to spend one day setting up that project.

@SimoneRomeo I’m currently unemployed so I’m treating my time as 0 but my money as 1. So if it convinces me to buy a bunch of aws storage I will deduct that cost from the net.

@tftftftftftftftftftftftf do you consider earnings even if operator does actions that you could have done yourself in less time? For example, if operator spends 40 hours to click stuff on the web, in the process it makes 100 EUR, but you could have brainstormed with an open source model and clicked that stuff yourself in less time and earn the same.

@SimoneRomeo good question. I don’t think I could stand up operator with an OS model. Maybe someone could but I can’t.

@tftftftftftftftftftftftf what I mean I that you can click links yourself. Chatgpt can recommend what you should do and you can click what chatGPT suggests. This can be much faster than waiting for operator to click. My experience with operator is that it takes more time than it saves to you, so even if it might be able to earn money, I think you'd be better off just doing work yourself.

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