This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on September 30, 2023, 12:00 PM ET.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ25 | |
| 2 | Ṁ10 | |
| 3 | Ṁ5 | |
| 4 | Ṁ4 | |
| 5 | Ṁ3 |
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@8 you hold 10,017 shares in this market, yet I do not see you in the 11 trades made on this market. How is this possible?
This would require three extremely unlikely events within four months:
Republicans gain two Senate seats (due to special elections or changing affiliation). This gives them a majority in both houses.
Both President Biden and Vice President Harris are removed/incapacitated, which leaves the presidency to Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
McCarthy nominates Donald Trump as Vice President. Both houses approve him. McCarthy resigns, making Trump president.
I can't see the odds being greater than 1-in-100.
@LoganTurner You’d need the Republicans to gain 18 seats to remove either Biden or Harris from office as the Senate requires a 2/3 supermajority (67 votes) to remove someone from office. So they could only realistically leave office if they were both incapacitated, which seems extremely unlikely. Or by some extreme scandal that would get Democrats onboard with removal from office, also extremely unlikely.
@Cutterpillow Thanks for clarifying. Yes, I had natural death + huge scandal in mind for Biden and Harris respectively. I suppose that a hypothetical Republican 2/3 Senate majority would prefer Trump and could force McCarthy's hand under threat of impeachment, effectively eliminating the uncertainty of step 3.