Will we expect SBF to serve more than 15 years in prison?
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170Ṁ850resolved Nov 11
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This question is about how much time he will actually spend in prison including any reductions in sentence. Resolves to market probability in one year.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Wish I'd seen this market sooner. AFAICT he is essentially guaranteed to serve 19+ years unless he dies very young in prison.
Even in the best-case scenario; even if Bankman-Fried can prove he’s a full-on stimulant addict and seeks treatment; even if he’s granted all sentence reductions available to him under federal law; even if he acts impeccably in prison for years, teaching a whole generation of inmates about the wonderful world of investing, he’s still locked in for over 19 years in a federal prison. - SBF Sentenced to 25 Years in Prison—How Many Will He Actually Serve?
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