Will there be significant BLM riots preceding the 2024 US presidential election?
Nov 6

Significant equals greater than approximately 500 participants in more than 2 major US cities. A riot is a situation in which people in a crowd are engaging in violence and/or destruction in the streets or another public space. BLM association will be drawn from a significant prominence of BLM related iconography/branding.

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There will be riots in 2024 by BLM everywhere during the 2024 election. The riots will be the bloodiest riots more worse than the riots in 2020 and worse then the riots in 2016. Endless violence endless smashing windows and burning cities buildings as ND police cars

bought Ṁ50 YES from 15% to 25%
bought Ṁ100 NO

I would broaden the scope and make it easier to judge by saying will there be a riot that targets the police or is in response to police brutality. If you have a couple people wearing BLM t-shirts and using BLM slogans at a rally - is it a BLM protest? Who knows!

General note: BLM is a movement that has a lot of organizations and individuals involved. The majority of whom are not members of groups that call themselves by BLM. It's a civil rights / end mass incarceration / police brutality movement.


10 unarmed blacks killed by police each year—most of them violent felons themselves

Roughly 4,000 school-induced suicides (that do not occur during summer, or when Covid closed schools)


Millions of opiate deaths.


Interesting how the most irrelevant events (schools shootings, “racisms”, “legally registered firearm deaths”) are psy-oped into salience—despite being statistically insignificant

More people died from BLM (by two orders of magnitude, in increased black homicides and traffics deaths) than from the thing “BLM” was supposedly about

@Gigacasting Racism kills millions of people each year. See life expectancy in the US, Africa, and beyond.

@Gigacasting Opiate deaths are approximately 100k in the US/year and many are caused by racism.

predicts YES

@AaronKreider Correlation between X and (RACE) isn't proof of, or even evidence of, racism.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Given that we've got documented cases of alt-right trolls/accelerationist militias dressing up as BLM protesters & initiating violence

( Google "umbrella man" + Minneapolis )

( Google Boogaloo Bois + Oakland )

can you give an example from 2020 of

1) A riot that overlapped w/a BLM protest, but you agree should be attributed to other causes,


2) A riot where there's prominent disagreement about blame, but you'd "score" it as caused by BLM


3) A riot where you'd agree BLM did everything possible to maintain peaceful civil disobedience, & the shift to riot was caused by police actions?

predicts YES

@JakeWasserman When resolving this question, I'm not going to be getting deep into research about whether or not a riotous crowd of approximately 500 people was actually caused by an alt-right militia. That isn't the premise. The premise is whether or not a large group of people that present themselves as BLM is rioting in more than 2 major cities. I don't know why you're bringing up 2020 - it is irrelevant.

predicts NO

@super61 I'm asking for you to give some edge cases examples from 2020 to help convey how nuanced you are.

As is, it sounds like you plan to make a pretty loose, uninformed analysis.

I'd be very glad to find out different.

How will you quantify "BLM" - do they have to be organized/funded by the BLM foundation? Declare themselves to be in support of the Black Lives Matter cause, or anti-police-brutality / racial justice generally? Just have someone there who mentions BLM, even if the protest is mainly about something else? What if the BLM protestors are peaceful, but counterprotestors are destructive?

I also assume based on the market that "preceding the election" implies any time between the market's opening and Election Day, and that the "500 participants" includes anyone at an event that becomes a riot (even if <500 people were actually violent or destructive).

@a I know this seems like a lot of questions, but this is a politically charged topic, so I think it's best to leave as little room for interpretation as possible.

related: how will you get the numbers of how many people are rioting? will it be based on how many people are arrested, how many people are convicted in court, what news agencies report, or eye-balling and wild guessing? What if the BLM protestors are initially peaceful, but counterprotestors are violent, and so BLM protestors get violent in self defense? I took "preceding the election" to mean in the months leading up to the election and would feel cheated if I were to make a prediction and lose mana because you meant any time between the market's opening and Election Day, so I will not be making any predictions until all these questions are cleared up.

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