Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is any officially reported kinetic military action between India and Pakistan between the market's creation and 11:59 PM UTC on May 31, 2026. Kinetic action is defined as the exchange of fire between military forces (e.g., artillery shelling, small arms fire, airstrikes, or naval engagement) along the Line of Control (LoC), the Working Boundary, or the international border.

Resolution will be based on reports from reputable international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, Al Jazeera) or official statements from the Ministry of External Affairs of India or the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Pakistan. If conflicting reports exist, a consensus among credible international observers will be used. If no such event is reported by the specified time, the market will resolve to "No".

Background

India and Pakistan have a long history of military conflict, primarily centred on the disputed territory of Kashmir. The border areas, specifically the Line of Control, frequently experience sporadic cease-fire violations and skirmishes. Both nations are nuclear-armed, making any escalation of kinetic activity a subject of significant international scrutiny. As of April 2026, the two nations maintain a fragile 2021 cease-fire agreement along the LoC, though the stability of this arrangement remains subject to political and security developments in the region.