Will the person who fired shots at the Trump rally turn out to be a Democrat or Leftist?
194
1kṀ110k
resolved Aug 24
Resolved
NO

As judged by me if the record isn't clear enough

If they never figure out who it is, resolves NA at the end of the market

If it is inconclusive i will 50% or NA by my judgement

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still no new evidence - fbi says two accounts. one anti immigrant, one on gab that is more central/left.

gab says they are unsure the account is actually his, but keeps claiming it is him anyway

still unsure what the 2nd account is? the anti immigrant one?

https://apnews.com/article/trump-assassination-attempt-fbi-secret-service-a382e3ec081dd13e85eaa9e726cca02c

Abbate did not identify the social media platform, saying investigators were still trying to definitively determine that it belonged to Crooks. However, he indicated that it was separate from an account on a different platform called Gab that was active in 2021.

What more evidence are you looking for to resolve? The FBI Director testified today.

was curious what polymarket would do but yes i think ill decide this soon

one more rumor i guess - Gab ceo saying they might have found his account and he was left...

https://x.com/BasedTorba/status/1816189333432590715

in one tweet 'we cant confirm its him' next tweet 'definitive evidence' lol ok

On the Twitter Rumor mill, it's been alleged that there's another Thomas Crooks in the area who better fits the description for the $15 donation (of course, the shooter was 17 then). There are a couple reasons that I don't believe that, but at the same time I think it's ridiculous entirely that many on the right are claiming that Crooks must've been a far-left ideologue based on absolutely zero evidence - of course, it makes sense for a MAGA-head to be unable to comprehend the idea that somebody's political views could change over time.

based on absolutely zero evidence

...other than the Trump shooting

@Helado - I don't understand how attempting to assassinate Donald Trump is evidence someone is a "far-left ideologue". It's evidence that they're not a Trump supporter, sure, but there is so much nuance in between those two positions. Crooks was a registered Republican (in a closed-primary state), and people who knew him described him as generally conservative in news interviews. Plus, his father was a Libertarian Party member - the exact type of right-wing conservative to hate Trump's guts.

A random far left ideologue is much more likely than a non far left ideologue to assasinate trump.

Given all the evidence we have it may be wrong to believe that, let alone be certain as many are, but saying there's zero evidence ignoring the elephant in the evidence room is not better.

Reuters has a good summary of what's known so far. As the story appears to be shaping up, he seems to have been a generally conservative kid (though without super pronounced political views), and in many ways fits the typical profile of a nihilistic suicide-by-atrocity mass shooter. Quiet, withdrawn, and probably dealing with some serious mental health issues that caused him to decide to go out in infamy.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-gunman-thomas-crooks-leaves-behind-pile-mysteries-2024-07-18/

bought Ṁ50 YES

not trustworthy account, fuck mario

ah i see hes sourcing fox

He also hated all politicians, by other accounts. Apparently really hated Clinton and Sanders as well.

I don't know how to break this to you, but, um

It's not new information that he disliked trump

um

some of us worked that out already from like, um

context clues

Gonna be really ironic (given all the finger pointing amongst politicians, conspiracy theorists, and the media over the past few days) if it turns out in the end that this was basically just another loser asshole trying to go out in a blaze of glory, no different from any other mass shooter, and there was no real political motivation at all.

If the FBI says he had no motive and didn’t hate Trump, the politicians and conspiracy theorists are not going to believe them

Generally, it’s hard to believe someone would shoot people without a motive

Generally, it’s hard to believe someone would shoot people without a motive

What would you say the motive is for the vast majority of mass shooters?

bought Ṁ500 NO

Resolve NO

Not yet

sold Ṁ252 YES

Which also notes the democrat on the local council who was running, who did not know the person. That says he was not a very active democrat, though it says little about online radicalisation.

whoa he had an appearance in a blackrock video
https://x.com/BRICSinfo/status/1812485755295395953
youtube video seems to have been removed

i wont trust a thing loomer posts and prefer she not be linked at all lol

ya i def grimaced as i post it lol -- swapped out for BRICS link

While interesting, is this actually relevant for this market? It's not like he actively went out of his way to make an appearance. It looks like he just happened to be in the school where they filmed the video.

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