If one or more of the following events occur, then I will analyse it and make a judgement, to resolve this question Yes or No:
1)Official Government Investigation Findings: The conclusion of an official investigation (e.g., FBI, DOJ) that publicly declares the assassination attempt was orchestrated or facilitated by individuals within the government, intelligence community, or other established institutions commonly referred to as the "deep state."
2)Credible Whistleblower Testimony: Verified and credible testimony from whistleblowers within the government or intelligence agencies that provides concrete evidence of the deep state's involvement in the assassination attempt.
3)Major Media Reports: Investigative reports from multiple reputable news organizations (e.g., The New York Times, The Washington Post, CNN) that provide substantiated evidence linking the assassination attempt to deep state actors. These reports should be based on verified sources and corroborated by multiple independent investigations.
Update 2026-04-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If none of the three criteria in the description are met (no official investigation, no credible whistleblower, no major media reports), this market will resolve NO (not N/A).
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plugging a related market: will people think this was an inside job in 2050? https://manifold.markets/marvingardens/in-2050-who-will-think-a-trump-assa
Just to be clear, (number 1.) if there is an investigation and it clears the deep state of involvement, this resolves NO. If it concludes that there is involvement, resolves YES. Numbers 2 and three can only lead to a YES resolution. And presumably if none of the three occur at all, there is no investigation, no nothing, resolves N/A? How about a serious journalistic piece or reportage that debunks deep state theories? That counts as nothing?
@JussiVilleHeiskanen@JussiVilleHeiskanen if there is no investigation or credible whistle blower report then this will resolve NO