Will the highest FIDE chess rating in the world be 2900 or greater on Labor Day 2029?
Will the highest FIDE chess rating in the world be 2900 or greater on Labor Day 2029?
4
70Ṁ1212029
16%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will the 2023 Chess World Champion be the highest rated player at any point before the 2025 Chess World Championship match?
3% chance
Who will be the first chess player to reach 2900 FIDE rating?
Will Magnus Carlsen be the highest FIDE rating chess player at the end of 2025?
95% chance
Will Magnus Carlsen be the highest FIDE rating chess player at the end of 2029?
20% chance
Who will be the next chess player to cross 2800 Elo points (FIDE classical, not live; to exceed 2800)
Will Magnus Carlsen be the highest FIDE rating chess player at the end of 2028?
29% chance
Will Magnus Carlsen be the highest FIDE rating chess player at the end of 2027?
60% chance
Will someone break the record for youngest Chess player to reach 2800 FIDE rating by the end of 2028?
40% chance
Will I reach a chess.com rating of 2600 before 2026?
12% chance
Will Magnus Carlsen be the highest FIDE rating chess player at the end of 2026?
85% chance