resolves to the same as polymarket
https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-blitz-primary
NOTE DEFINITION OF BLITZ PRIMARY THEY ARE USING
A blitz primary is defined as Joe Biden withdrawing from the race, and multiple candidates are given the chance to become the Democratic nominee for President of the United States in an open field.
Full Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Democrats announce they will hold a blitz primary for the 2024 US Presidential Election, by July 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A blitz primary is defined as Joe Biden withdrawing from the race, and multiple candidates are given the chance to become the Democratic nominee for President of the United States in an open field.
If it is widely reported that a mini/blitz primary will officially occur, this market will resolve to "Yes".
It is only necessary that the primary be officially announced by the resolution date for this market to resolve to "Yes", regardless of whether the primary occurs after.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Democratic Party, however a consensus of credible sources will also be used.Resolver
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People are also trading
Their definition of a blitz primary:
A blitz primary is defined as Joe Biden withdrawing from the race, and multiple candidates are given the chance to become the Democratic nominee for President of the United States in an open field.
I would argue this has already happened: Marianne Williamson and Kamala Harris are are both running for the nomination and both have a chance to whip delegates to their side. I suspect the UMA dispute will hinge on what "given the chance" means, but clearly people are pricing in a strong possibility of a Yes. However, I don't think most people would colloquially refer to the events of the last 2 days as a blitz primary.
