Will North Korean troops intentionally enter South Korea by the end of November 2024? | Manifold

Will North Korean troops intentionally enter South Korea by the end of November 2024?

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𝕊190

Dec 1

1.5%

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Resolves YES if there is credible reporting that soldiers actively representing North Korea have entered the country of South Korea beyond the DMZ or any other areas they are encountered in normally.

It must be knowing/intentional, not accidentally crossing over.

This may be as part of an incursion or any other entry that wasn't consented to by South Korea.

Defectors and other individuals not acting on behalf of North Korea's interest will not affect this market's resolution.

(For the mana market what counts as credible reporting will be by the judgement of myself and/or moderators).

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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https://www.dailynk.com/english/kim-orders-nuclear-backed-war-plans-north-korea-labels-south-enemy-state/

Does it count if it’s an accident or done without realizing, similar to what happened in June?

@GleamingRhino hmm good questions, thoughts @strutheo ?

@GleamingRhino no i wouldnt count that as the spirit of the question

I made some updates to the description and sweepified this. The criteria are still not that robust but considering it is so unlikely I think as is shall be fine.

reposted

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