Will Kamala Harris be the first woman president of the USA before the end of 2028?
60
1kṀ21k
2028
1.1%
chance

If elected or the president dying while she is vice president and then being approved as President, this resolves yes

if she wins the 2028 election this resolves YES

US Politics
Politics
2024 US Presidential Election
Democratic Party
Joe Biden
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biden dropped out

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jd vance bump

sold Ṁ69 NO

Roughly identical market to https://manifold.markets/zaperrer/will-kamala-harris-be-president-by

bought Ṁ10 NO

I'm guessing her interrim presidency while Biden got a colinoscopy didn't count, so Biden dying while she's VP also doesn't?

If Biden dies and she becomes president this will resolve yes

opened a Ṁ100 NO at 50% order

I see the chances of this as rather identical to her chances of getting the Dem nomination, because I feel the chance of Trump beating her in a general is about the same as the chance of Biden beating Trump and then dying in office

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