Will Kamala Harris be the first woman president of the USA before the end of 2028?
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Plus
60
Ṁ10k
2028
6%
chance

If elected or the president dying while she is vice president and then being approved as President, this resolves yes

if she wins the 2028 election this resolves YES

#🇺🇸 US Politics
#️ Politics
#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election
#Democratic Party
#Joe Biden
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reposted

biden dropped out

reposted

jd vance bump

sold Ṁ69 NO

Roughly identical market to https://manifold.markets/zaperrer/will-kamala-harris-be-president-by

bought Ṁ10 NO

I'm guessing her interrim presidency while Biden got a colinoscopy didn't count, so Biden dying while she's VP also doesn't?

If Biden dies and she becomes president this will resolve yes

opened a Ṁ100 NO at 50% order

I see the chances of this as rather identical to her chances of getting the Dem nomination, because I feel the chance of Trump beating her in a general is about the same as the chance of Biden beating Trump and then dying in office

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