Will I break a bone before the end of 2027? | Manifold

Will I break a bone before the end of 2027?

12

Ṁ100Ṁ236

2027

10%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Market context

Get

1,000

to start trading!

Sort by:

Tagged with 'personal goals', is it?
Actuarially and for the average adult, odds are pretty low (close order of 1% per year) ... but I have no idea what you get up to and one has to suppose the average person who creates a 'Will I break a bone...' market might have elevated odds
Anyway, I bet no

You planning to arm wrestle at manifest this year?

People are also trading

Will I break a bone in the next 10 months?

-4% 1d2% chance

Will I break another bone before 2027?

Will I have a baby by the end of 2027?

Will I get Lou Gehrig’s disease by 2027?

Will I be in a coma at the end of 2027?

Will I be able to do a muscle-up by the end of 2026?

Will I be single at the end of 2026?

Will I reach 6"2 by 2028

Will I (TJ) die before the end of 2027? (eliciting negative of survival likelihoods)

Will I successfully complete an Ironman triathlon before 2027?

Related questions

Will I break a bone in the next 10 months?

Will I break another bone before 2027?

Will I have a baby by the end of 2027?

Will I get Lou Gehrig’s disease by 2027?

Will I be in a coma at the end of 2027?

Will I be able to do a muscle-up by the end of 2026?

Will I be single at the end of 2026?

Will I reach 6"2 by 2028

Will I (TJ) die before the end of 2027? (eliciting negative of survival likelihoods)

Will I successfully complete an Ironman triathlon before 2027?