Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?
400
11kṀ80k2045
50%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Open until either event happens
See: /strutheo/will-elon-musk-be-the-first-person
See: /strutheo/will-elon-musk-ever-walk-on-mars
See: /strutheo/will-elon-musk-ever-walk-on-the-moo
See: /strutheo/will-elon-musk-ever-orbit-or-walk-o
Update 2025-02-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Resolution Criteria:
The market will remain open indefinitely if no human ever walks on Mars.
In the absence of a human landing on Mars, the market will resolve upon Elon Musk's death.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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