Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?
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upgraded to PLUS


added 1000 subsidy

opened a Ṁ100 NO at 62% order

Limit orders for NO are up!

@firstuserhere nvm thought this was elon going to mars market

bought Ṁ20 YES

seems pretty low if we expect humans on Mars by 2040

bought Ṁ250 YES from 61% to 63%
bought Ṁ100 NO from 54% to 51%

@Jono3h those humans will be Chinese and Korean and taking a big risk. Elon won't go unless it's on his own boat, low-risk, and he's got a real job to do on Mars.

Impossible to really predict because AGI messes up long term predictions but that's hownit seem to me rn

bought Ṁ250 YES

@Jono3h oops thought this was will elon himself go to mars market, you're right that this market should be higher

bought Ṁ100 NO

@Jono3h at 70 minimum.

The oldest person ever to enter eath's orbit was 77

It would be if we were expecting it

Is he considered to be alive if he is in cryogenic stasis, have successfully digitized his consciousness, or is in a otherwise pseudo living condition?

@GazDownright come back to me when it happens lol. if hes in a coma and they ship him to mars maybe i will count it if the general consensus is that he is

@strutheo Haha! You're gonna give him ideas now 😂


55% chance around ~210 traders


70% chance at 170 traders


~60% at ~140 users


60% at 100 traders

Some technicality questions that may become relevant in case Elon happens to be on board that first ship to Mars:

  • How does this resolve if Elon dies on the same day that a human walks on mars? Are we actually resolving based on which happens first, or is it rounded to the day? (And is that an Earth day? What time zone?)

  • Does walking on mars mean literally boots on the surface? What if the astronauts haven't yet left the spaceship/habitat?


  • whatever happens first, not rounded to the day

  • ill have to know more about the mars mission when the time comes. like using a little rover or hovercraft might be the closest to 'walking' possible if the suits arent considered safe to walk on the surface itself


50% at 60 traders


50% at 50 traders

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