Will changing the way Trader Bonuses impact Leagues increase the amount of questions being made on Manifold in 3 months?
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resolved May 2
Resolved
N/A

On Feb 17th Manifold made a change where old questions can now count toward current League scores, in an effort to encourage more creation.

For resolution I won't use the exact day's 'question created' amount, we'll use some sort of average to determine if there are, in general, more questions being made.

Link: https://manifold.markets/stats

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cancelled since it is no longer in the spirit

oof good grab @Panfilo. I didn't cancel these orders after the pivot was announced. oh well

opened a Ṁ100 YES at 50% order

I'm optimistic that this will be true. But also curious: (how) will you control for user growth/ decline?

@Stralor didnt think about it, do you have any ideas?
ill just resolve this in whatever way is most appropriate if someone comes up with a better way, or NA if unsure

@strutheo I see a few options:

  • raw question creation amounts (no control)

  • averaged markets / DAU or such

  • identifying trendlines and seeing if rate of change is improved rather than raw data (prob not what you want)

@Stralor i wanted to do raw creation, i guess i can compare the Monday to the Monday or something? that still feels like 1 data point and unsatisfying though

@Stralor fine with any of these , i can plug the values into excel and see if its an increasing trendline, but that wont control for new accounts either

@strutheo I mean go ahead and do the average of a week or something. That'd be good in any case even if you don't control for user counts