Will a basketball player score 50,000 points in the NBA by EOY 2030?
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8
Ṁ926
2031
5%
chance

LeBron James recently became the first player in NBA history to score 40,000 career points.

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Very unlikely. Someone could score 30 points a game in all 82 regular season games for 20 years, and they'd still be 800 points short. And playoff games normally don't count toward this stat.

The only player with a chance to do this by 2030 is Lebron, but he would need to play at least six or seven more seasons at his current rate. (In his prime he scored 2000 points a year, but now he rests a significant fraction of games.)

@TimothyJohnson5c16 thanks for the analysis I'll make some more competitive ones