🍾What will happen in January 2025? [ADD RESPONSES]
Basic
62
Ṁ4886
Feb 2
98.8%
Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive for the entire month
98.6%
Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%
98%
Trump inaugurated without major incident
96%
Ayatollah Khamenei will be alive the whole month
95%
Israel : Hamas Ceasefire
89%
usa politician pulicized visit to japan
80%
2 or more inches of snow fall in nyc
59%
The total 7.8 km length of the Rideau Canal Skateway, the world's largest skating rink, will be open for at least 3 days.
53%
SpaceX launches >11 rockets
49%
the Two astronauts land alive on Earth
43%
NASDAQ hits an all time high
33%
another Texas power grid failure
27%
A YouTube video specifically about someone called Janette/Janet/Jane, rye bread, or the exclamation "REEE" is uploaded and gets >1M views
27%
grok 3 release
26%
web3isgoinggreat makes at least 20 posts this month
23%
Yoon Suk Yeol will stay president of South-Korea
20%
Dec (from Ant & Dec) mentions decimals, decibels, tough decisions, despots, Despicable Me, or Despacito on social media
20%
The DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ all hit new all-time highs.
19%
Ted Cruz vacations in Mexico
17%
For the first time, weak AGI is declared to have been achieved by a majority of Manifold respondents in the monthly poll

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

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@strutheo why N/A? Harris received electoral votes this time and she is clearly "someone other than Joe Biden or Donald Trump".

@VonGadke Yeah, I had a brain fart and bet the wrong way on this, but I think it should probably count.

i think it confused multiple ppl and only a few bet so i just naed

bought Ṁ10 NO

We've had 3 posts to web3isgoinggreat this month, with the first on the 7th. Over the past year (I counted manually but I'm pretty sure this is approximately correct):

December 2024: 12, first on the 1st

November 2024: 9, first on the 3rd

October 2024: 11, first on the 4th

September 2024: 28, first on the 3rd

August 2024: 21, first on the 1st

July 2024: 19, first on the 1st

June 2024: 23, first on the 2nd

May 2024: 18, first on the 3rd

April 2024: 27 first on the 1st

March 2024: 32, first on the 1st

February 2024: 30, first on the 1st

January 2024: 36, first on the 2nd

Considering the decrease in post frequency over the past three months and the delay to first post, I think it's going to be a slow month.

bought Ṁ10 NO

I better get a huge payout considering nobody on the PGA tour goes by the name "iger Woods"

bought Ṁ5 YES

@MugaSofer I'm sure this one will be easy for you haha

bought Ṁ15 NO

[Breaking] Investigative body moves in to arrest Yoon Suk Yeol

Some 50 officials of the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials and police combined entered President Yoon Suk Yeol's official residence at around 8:03 a.m. Friday to arrest him on suspicion of insurrection.

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