I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse. Update 2026-03-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Events must occur in April 2026 (not merely by April 2026).

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, noam chomsky alive until end of month, followed by Sam Altman still CEO through end of month and Volcano dormant for half a year erupts are most likely. See the market for live updates (122 traders, as of May 1, 2026).

🐣What will happen in April 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]

MANIFOLD

🐣What will happen in April 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]

122

Ṁ1kṀ16k

May 2

99%

noam chomsky alive until end of month

99%

Sam Altman still CEO through end of month

96%

Volcano dormant for half a year erupts

96%

Member of U.S Congress resigns, dies, or is removed from office

96%

A tornado in the USA rated EF4 or greater

47%

Accidentally Clicked this

35%

Mass tech layoffs announced

26%

earthquake 7.5 magnitude or higher

25%

major tech company merger/acquisition announced

trump posts on twitter/x ten or more times

usa bombs or missle strikes lebanon

An original, Nintendo approved game with "Mario" in its title is announced

A sitting U.S. State or Territory governor dies in office

usa bombs or missle strikes syria

1.8%

American airstrike or drone strike or missile strike on Mexico

1.7%

Federal Reserve cuts interest rates

1.7%

Cambridge South (UK) railway station finishes construction and open to the public.

1.5%

nyc receives 3 or more inches of rain

1.3%

$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month

1.3%

trump leaves usa at least once

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

Update 2026-03-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Events must occur in April 2026 (not merely by April 2026).

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bought Ṁ50 NO

@strutheo
2.48 inches
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=NYC&product=CF6&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/24/20k-job-cuts-at-meta-microsoft-raise-concern-of-ai-labor-crisis-.html

bought Ṁ20 YES

On April 20, 2026, a magnitude ~7.5 earthquake struck off the Sanriku coast in northern Japan.
Some reports initially estimated it slightly higher (up to ~7.7), but it’s generally recorded in the 7.4–7.5+ range, which meets your “7.5+” threshold depending on the source/rounding.

@AlanTennant see post below Japan has a different scale.

@ChristopherRandles

sold Ṁ20 YES

@AlanTennant I guess this choice of rounding indicates that it's between 7.4 and 7.5 🤷‍♂️

@AlanTennant Are you sure that it isn't that Japan was first to start issuing sizes on its scale and the early estimates on that scale were 7.4 then 7.5 before settling at 7.7 while USGS later put it at 7.4 and kept it at that value? (That is my impression but not with huge confidence there could be other twists and turns I am not aware of.)

@ChristopherRandles I don't know. 🤔

bought Ṁ10 NO

@strutheo
Japan reported 7.7 but I believe that is on their own different scale and the standard magnitude scale is as reported here
https://www.iris.edu/app/seismic-monitor/table

7.4 max so far. Could still be a 7.5 this month.

Posting to say please watch what scale is used.