Dreamers v Schemers: Avg Yes is 1-3k?
49
648
1.7K
resolved Apr 2
Resolved
NO

⚠️WARNING - RANKED WHALEBAIT - TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK⚠️

An experiment in crowd dynamics. Resolves NO at close time April 1st, unless the YES voters has 1000-3000 shares each on average.

TLDR: The YES side wins if they have positions that average >=1K shares each, excluding YES users that have a position >3K shares or <10 shares

This means richer YES users can bet >1000 shares to help cover poorer YES users. But the 3K limitation means they can only 'cover' a limited number of others. If too many people try to take advantage of this generosity by betting YES with less than 1000 share, the YES team will fail.

If you buy 10-3000 shares YES on this market, you are contributing toward the YES team's average and betting on the outcome ("Dreamers").

If you have 3001 or more shares on this market, you are betting on the outcome, but you are not counted toward the YES team's average. The same applies to YES positions under 10 shares.

If you bet NO you are betting on the outcome of the market but not impacting the YES team's average per person ("Schemers").

I reserve the right to N/A if i deem shenanigans have compromised the integrity of the answers or spirit of the question.

⚠️WARNING - RANKED WHALEBAIT - TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK⚠️

Get Ṁ200 play money

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@strutheo I think 3k isn't a high enough limit to attract the real whales. If one whale could cover 10 other people, maybe that would work better?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 hmm intriguing maybe @SG will be down with another experiment...

even if not, ill make a version without the boost/rank

bought Ṁ50 YES

Only 2x 3k YES to resolve YES

bought Ṁ690 NO

@EliJohnson haha, just realized it doesn't exclude holders of 10 mana shares, had read that as excluding ≤10 mana shares before

@EliJohnson it does exclude less than 10 mana shares, atleast that is how it was set up

EDIT: misread your comment, yeah whatever the description says

@strutheo "<10 shares" usually means exclusive? ie it doesn't include 10. so 10 would count for the purpose of the average. Am I wrong in that understanding?

@Bayesian whatever i wrote in bio (might have been edited by mods at this point, idk with this market)

TLDR: The YES side wins if they have positions that average >=1K shares each, excluding YES users that have a position >3K shares or <10 shares

Reminder that this offer still holds:
M15 for each trader who buys exactly 10 shares of YES and hold until close and resolve, up to 20 traders.

Previous traders who changes their position and holds are also eligible.

https://manifold.markets/link/pYJaqsSG

bought Ṁ300 NO from 17% to 15%
bought Ṁ1 YES at 9%
reposted

<3hours

bought Ṁ200 YES

I'll bite and see what happens

reposted

<24h

@strutheo If it wasn't your decision for this to be ranked, whose was it? This clearly falls under "Market is self-referential", so according to the guidelines, I'm supposed to unrank it - what's the source of the supposed exception to that?

@chrisjbillington talk to @SG (just bc they felt like it i think?)

@strutheo Oh, I see the discussion here, no need for further explanation.

reposted

one week left

if anyone thinks YES will work and wants to bet on it without messing up the prob too much, im willing to make a really big NO bet around 27%

reposted

wow so little activity for such a big whalebait

@strutheo Being optimistic, usually these things don’t pop off until closer to the close time. Buying shares earlier just gives away information

reposted

🚨🚨boosted, big limit orders, RANKED, whalebait🚨🚨
come one come all , bettors beware
(look up whalebait before betting if youre unsure!)

bought Ṁ1,200 NO

M15 for each trader who buys exactly 10 shares of YES and hold until close and resolve, up to 20 traders.

Previous traders who changes their position and holds are also eligible.

https://manifold.markets/link/pYJaqsSG

@SavioMak oh shit the big guns are coming out

@SavioMak How does the claim thing work? Is it paid immediately? If so is it the honor system that the claimant holds until the market is resolved? If not is it the honor system that you will pay, or is it programmatic somehow?

@simoj Yes, honor system. Paid immediately and claimant should hold until resolution

@simoj It is not that hard to do it programatically but it is not worth the effort