📌5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Do you think this poll will reach 500 responses by EOY 2024? (47% DONE)

Manifold CoolFold Meta-markets Manifold Users Experimental Public Opinion Polls Experiments 500 Poll Experiment

247

2025

Yes

Questions About This Poll:

🔗 /strutheo/will-the-majority-of-manifold-users

🔗 /strutheo/will-this-poll-asking-if-it-will-re

🔗 /strutheo/will-manifold-users-that-respond-to

Get Ṁ600 play money

Related questions

5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Will the poll asking if it will reach 500 responses by EOY 2024 actually reach 500 responses by EOY 2024?

52% chance

5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Will Manifold users that respond to the poll asking if it will reach 500 votes by EOY 2024 predict correctly?

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78% chance

5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Will the majority of respondents to this poll think that it will reach 500 responses by EOY 2024?

72% chance

Will someone create a poll with more then 200 responses by EOY 2024?

26% chance

Will the "500 Poll" reach it's goal before end of Halloween?

28% chance

How many people will fill out the 2024 LessWrong survey?

27 Comments

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49% done

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bump! still at 39% done

Nice little jump to 46

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39%

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bump! 37.4% complete

Somebody must have stopped manipulating this poll. No movement in quite a while

@chris new algorithm

@strutheo We were averaging roughly 1 person on this poll per day, now we haven't seen anyone in over a week... really odd.

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34%

My expected value at end of year is currently 451

reposted

Buying up low probability markets around this poll then boosting it seems +EV? Who knows.

reposted

29.6% complete

this poll looking jealous: /strutheo/would-you-have-sex-with-a-robot

28%

from @chris

@strutheo Updated here

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24% done

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Please go vote!

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need more votes wyt?

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22%

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20% complete with 10 months to go!

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19.4% complete

Does this resolve as soon as it reaches 500, or will it resolve only at EOY 2024?

@jks this is just the poll, the markets will resolve when the poll resolves

@strutheo A better way to ask my question is:
When will this poll close? At EOY 2024, 500 responses, the later of the two, or the sooner of the two?

@jks as soon as it hits 500 mods can step in