5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Will Manifold users that respond to the poll asking if it will reach 500 votes by EOY 2024 predict correctly?

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## Related questions

5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Will the poll asking if it will reach 500 responses by EOY 2024 actually reach 500 responses by EOY 2024?

25% chance

Will someone create a poll with more then 200 responses by EOY 2024?

26% chance

One year from now, will the percentage that this question resolves YES (as shown by Manifold) be above 50%?

60% chance

In the 2024 US election, will Manifold be within the top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets?

50% chance

Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform FiveThirtyEight's?

51% chance

5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Will the majority of respondents to this poll think that it will reach 500 responses by EOY 2024?

83% chance

In the 2024 US election, will Manifold beat 538 on accuracy?

53% chance

Will Manifold have 10,000 Twitter/X followers before Election Day (Nov 5)?

72% chance

Will Manifold allow questions to be resolved by a poll of random users before 2025?

36% chance

Will Manifold have multiple-choice polls by 2025?

33% chance

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the poll is 9.2% complete with >11 months to go, yet 2/3 of people think it will not make it to 500

Context:

/strutheo/do-you-think-this-poll-will-reach-5

## Related questions

## Related questions

5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Will the poll asking if it will reach 500 responses by EOY 2024 actually reach 500 responses by EOY 2024?

25% chance

5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Will the majority of respondents to this poll think that it will reach 500 responses by EOY 2024?

83% chance

Will someone create a poll with more then 200 responses by EOY 2024?

26% chance

In the 2024 US election, will Manifold beat 538 on accuracy?

53% chance

One year from now, will the percentage that this question resolves YES (as shown by Manifold) be above 50%?

60% chance

Will Manifold have 10,000 Twitter/X followers before Election Day (Nov 5)?

72% chance

In the 2024 US election, will Manifold be within the top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets?

50% chance

Will Manifold allow questions to be resolved by a poll of random users before 2025?

36% chance

Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform FiveThirtyEight's?

51% chance

Will Manifold have multiple-choice polls by 2025?

33% chance