5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Will Manifold users that respond to the poll asking if it will reach 500 votes by EOY 2024 predict correctly? | Manifold

5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Will Manifold users that respond to the poll asking if it will reach 500 votes by EOY 2024 predict correctly?

Plus

33

Ṁ2171

Jan 1

21%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

See:

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Manifold Users

#500 Poll Experiment

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

reposted

poll at 55% currently

39% done

31%

reposted

25%

22%

reposted

poll just hit 20%

poll is 14% complete now

reposted

the poll is 9.2% complete with >11 months to go, yet 2/3 of people think it will not make it to 500

Context:
/strutheo/do-you-think-this-poll-will-reach-5

You are too clever

Related questions

5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Will the poll asking if it will reach 500 responses by EOY 2024 actually reach 500 responses by EOY 2024?

Will Manifold successfully predict the Time's Person of the Year 2024?

🗳️💭What will Manifold's Approval Rating be at end of Q4 2024? [Poll Index]

One year from now, will the percentage that this question resolves YES (as shown by Manifold) be above 50%?

Which manifold users will have created the most questions by EOY 2024?

5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Will the majority of respondents to this poll think that it will reach 500 responses by EOY 2024?

In the 2024 US election, will Manifold beat 538 on accuracy?

In the 2024 US election, will Manifold be within the top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets?

Will Manifold have multiple-choice polls by 2025?

Will Manifold significantly improve discovery in 2024? (resolves based on a poll)

Related questions

5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Will the poll asking if it will reach 500 responses by EOY 2024 actually reach 500 responses by EOY 2024?

5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Will the majority of respondents to this poll think that it will reach 500 responses by EOY 2024?

Will Manifold successfully predict the Time's Person of the Year 2024?

In the 2024 US election, will Manifold beat 538 on accuracy?

🗳️💭What will Manifold's Approval Rating be at end of Q4 2024? [Poll Index]

In the 2024 US election, will Manifold be within the top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets?

One year from now, will the percentage that this question resolves YES (as shown by Manifold) be above 50%?

Will Manifold have multiple-choice polls by 2025?

Which manifold users will have created the most questions by EOY 2024?

Will Manifold significantly improve discovery in 2024? (resolves based on a poll)

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules