5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Will Manifold users that respond to the poll asking if it will reach 500 votes by EOY 2024 predict correctly? | Manifold

5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Will Manifold users that respond to the poll asking if it will reach 500 votes by EOY 2024 predict correctly?

Manifold CoolFold Manifold Users Meta-markets Experimental Experiments 500 Poll Experiment

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Related questions

5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Will the poll asking if it will reach 500 responses by EOY 2024 actually reach 500 responses by EOY 2024?

Will someone create a poll with more then 200 responses by EOY 2024?

One year from now, will the percentage that this question resolves YES (as shown by Manifold) be above 50%?

In the 2024 US election, will Manifold be within the top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets?

Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform FiveThirtyEight's?

5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Will the majority of respondents to this poll think that it will reach 500 responses by EOY 2024?

In the 2024 US election, will Manifold beat 538 on accuracy?

Will Manifold have 10,000 Twitter/X followers before Election Day (Nov 5)?

Will Manifold allow questions to be resolved by a poll of random users before 2025?

Will Manifold have multiple-choice polls by 2025?

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39% done

31%

reposted

25%

22%

reposted

poll just hit 20%

poll is 14% complete now

reposted

the poll is 9.2% complete with >11 months to go, yet 2/3 of people think it will not make it to 500

Context:
/strutheo/do-you-think-this-poll-will-reach-5

You are too clever

Related questions

5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Will the poll asking if it will reach 500 responses by EOY 2024 actually reach 500 responses by EOY 2024?

Will someone create a poll with more then 200 responses by EOY 2024?

One year from now, will the percentage that this question resolves YES (as shown by Manifold) be above 50%?

In the 2024 US election, will Manifold be within the top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets?

Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform FiveThirtyEight's?

5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Will the majority of respondents to this poll think that it will reach 500 responses by EOY 2024?

In the 2024 US election, will Manifold beat 538 on accuracy?

Will Manifold have 10,000 Twitter/X followers before Election Day (Nov 5)?

Will Manifold allow questions to be resolved by a poll of random users before 2025?

Will Manifold have multiple-choice polls by 2025?

Related questions

5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Will the poll asking if it will reach 500 responses by EOY 2024 actually reach 500 responses by EOY 2024?

5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Will the majority of respondents to this poll think that it will reach 500 responses by EOY 2024?

Will someone create a poll with more then 200 responses by EOY 2024?

In the 2024 US election, will Manifold beat 538 on accuracy?

One year from now, will the percentage that this question resolves YES (as shown by Manifold) be above 50%?

Will Manifold have 10,000 Twitter/X followers before Election Day (Nov 5)?

In the 2024 US election, will Manifold be within the top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets?

Will Manifold allow questions to be resolved by a poll of random users before 2025?

Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform FiveThirtyEight's?

Will Manifold have multiple-choice polls by 2025?