
At the end of 2025 will the most commonly used card in Standard Magic the Gathering decks be a Land card? (non-Basic)
15
100Ṁ2162026
50%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will be going off of 'All 2025 Decks' in Standard format here: https://mtgtop8.com/topcards
NOT INCLUDING BASIC LANDS
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I don't know anything about Magic the Gathering, but I do know how to scrape a website, look at a few matplotlib charts and decide, based on a combination of evidence and general attunement to cosmic vibrations, that this market should be trading at 50%. My data and code, if anyone thinks they can do better.
@strutheo Thank you. I’m particularly curious about @Ajelenbogen’s bets on your last few MTG markets. I’ve noticed that he occupies the opposite side of my positions, so we’ll have a nice test of whether domain-specific knowledge will beat blind statistical analysis.
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