Will Lmarena be a relevant benchmark at EOY 2025?
7
200แน€240
Dec 31
51%
chance

Currently, Lmarena is still a popular benchmark, but there have been accusations of companies (Meta) gaming the rankings. Resolves subjectively on if I (or the mods, if I don't resolve this) think Lmarena is still widely cited and referenced as a general benchmark for LLM text prompt quality and performance. Resolves NO if other benchmarks become more popular.

  • Update 2025-11-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator indicates they would currently resolve YES based on:

    • Google Trends data for Lmarena

    • Their perception of Lmarena's popularity and level of trust

This provides insight into how the subjective resolution criteria will be evaluated.

Get
แน€1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

As an update, I would resolve this YES if the market ended now, just based on the Google Trends and my perception of Lmarena's popularity and level of trust

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=%2Fg%2F11x6yqz1wf&hl=en

if anyone wants to bet against, ping me for better liquidity!

@Bayesian I added some liquidity too

ยฉ Manifold Markets, Inc.โ€ขTermsโ€ขPrivacy