Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Commitment Panopticon
4
Ṁ1.2kṀ60
Dec 31
58%
I will find a statistically significant predictor for the "happiness" data feature I collect on myself (daily granularity happiness rating from 1-5, self-assessed), based on the other contextual data I collect (e.g. exercise, sleep times)
53%
I will get out of bed by 6:30am on 11/4
50%
Commitment A
50%
Commitment B
50%
Commitment C
50%
I will get out of bed by 5:30am on 11/4
50%
I will average 10,000 steps per day for the week 10/30 to 11/5
Resolved
65%
Resolves to the number of steps on 10/30, where each percent corresponds to 100 steps, (10k steps is 100%)

Each option represents a certain commitment I have made. I have a local model that collects life data e.g. wake/sleep time, location, biometrics (e.g. for exercise), and connectors/apis to email, slack, github, activity monitoring apps, tailscale, etc., so that it can accurately assess my productivity and health. If I fail to make a certain commitment, an option will resolve to 0%: each option will resolve to a percent determined by the model through some objective, quantitative criteria. This model has been encouraged to independently and autonomously evaluate my performance. At the start of this market, if the model is miscalibrated/makes clear misresolutions, I may re-resolve contrary to its decision.

Some commitments will just be labeled "Commitment A," "Commitment B," etc. for the sake of privacy. Some commitments will have more information about them. But as an example they could represent "I will attend event A from time B to C" or "I will finish this project by time A."

This market will serve as a panopticon. I will only ever buy YES on any of the options, if I interact at all, and will never sell YES shares. Options are not mutually exclusive and resolve separately, though they may be correlated.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

@spiderduckpig endless studies have shown a that the primary factor tied to "happiness" is the frequency of meaningful human interactions. Over nearly 80 years, Harvard study has been showing how to live a healthy and happy life

perhaps take that into consideration

@bobalobascrob also what's your bar for statistically significant? frequentist? p value < 0.05?

the more statistics you have the likelier that is...

heck yeah keep up that good work