Each option represents a certain commitment I have made. I have a local model that collects life data e.g. wake/sleep time, location, biometrics (e.g. for exercise), and connectors/apis to email, slack, github, activity monitoring apps, tailscale, etc., so that it can accurately assess my productivity and health. If I fail to make a certain commitment, an option will resolve to 0%: each option will resolve to a percent determined by the model through some objective, quantitative criteria. This model has been encouraged to independently and autonomously evaluate my performance. At the start of this market, if the model is miscalibrated/makes clear misresolutions, I may re-resolve contrary to its decision.
Some commitments will just be labeled "Commitment A," "Commitment B," etc. for the sake of privacy. Some commitments will have more information about them. But as an example they could represent "I will attend event A from time B to C" or "I will finish this project by time A."
This market will serve as a panopticon. I will only ever buy YES on any of the options, if I interact at all, and will never sell YES shares. Options are not mutually exclusive and resolve separately, though they may be correlated.
@spiderduckpig endless studies have shown a that the primary factor tied to "happiness" is the frequency of meaningful human interactions. Over nearly 80 years, Harvard study has been showing how to live a healthy and happy life
perhaps take that into consideration
@bobalobascrob also what's your bar for statistically significant? frequentist? p value < 0.05?
the more statistics you have the likelier that is...