Life must originate before 1971 (can't have arrived via a human prope, though panspermia by other means still qualifies).
Resolves with whatever manifold considers scientific consensus in 2100 - the equivalent of today’s "resolves with wikipedia".
@ChrisEdwards note that this question is about whether there is life on mars; so if there is no life on mars no agi will help us conclude that there is
@ChrisEdwards same here, I think it's the marsians messing with our heads
@Bayesian I mixed up the title, thought the price was the equivalent of 12%. So uh. should have sold ig.
@spider that's wild. would it be the same life as on earth in that case? or some independent marsian life
@Bayesian honestly I'm really uncertain how to divide probability mass between the two. Most of my current world view comes from the strengths and weaknesses of existing evidence (mainly seasonal atmospheric composition changes), instead of trying to reason it out as a black box.
@spider i'd put like 7% on the first and 3% on the second, that would be absolutely bizarre. unless "life" is tiny self replicating molecules and there are tons of them all throughout the universe but we don't know about them or care about them bc they never got or never could have gotten past that stage? ig in that case second option could be 50% for all I know
@Bayesian oh yeah, the idea that abiogenesis could be one of the easier steps would make for such a cool universe.