Resolution criteria

• Resolve YES to the single option corresponding to the party with the most seats in the 2025 Bihar Legislative Assembly general election.

• Ties: If two or more parties have the same highest seat count, resolve to the one with the higher statewide vote share. If those vote shares are equal when rounded to two decimals, resolve N/A.

• Only the initial certified results of the 2025 general election count (not exit polls, recount-day “trends,” later by-elections, or post-result defections). Seats are attributed to the party under which each winning candidate was elected, not to alliances.

• If for any reason, the elections won't happen in 2025, the market will resolve to N/A.

Background

• Bihar Assembly has 243 seats; 122 is a majority. The 2020 election produced RJD 75, BJP 74, JD(U) 43 (RJD was the single largest party; NDA alliance formed the government).

• As of 2025, Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) is back with the BJP-led NDA; RJD leads the INDIA bloc opposition.

• The 2025 election is expected Oct–Nov 2025.

Considerations

• Alliances matter for government formation, but this market resolves strictly by individual party seat tallies; seat-sharing caps how many constituencies a party can even contest.