My partner and I are both from Israel but we live in Europe (near an international air hub). Before the war started on February 28th we scheduled our wedding to May 4th in Israel, where the families and most of our friends are.

The event is expected to have about 200 participants, almost all of them from Israel, plus operating teams and other service providers. It is supposed to be fairly north but not too north, about half way between Tel Aviv and Israel's northern border. The venue does not have a bomb shelter or underground parking.

Given the war going on, will we be able to get married in the planned date?

Consider that there are currently emergency restrictions on event sizes in place in Israel (max 50 people and only if there is a shelter nearby). Businesses like event venues are obliged by these restrictions.

The market will resolve to YES if the event will happen as planned on May 4th. NO resolution will happen if the event will be postponed, change venue, be significantly smaller (100 guests or less), or completely canceled due to the war.

I won't trade in this market (although for the record I'll say that I'd probably put some mana on NO)