My partner and I are both from Israel but we live in Europe (near an international air hub). Before the war started on February 28th we scheduled our wedding to May 4th in Israel, where the families and most of our friends are.
The event is expected to have about 200 participants, almost all of them from Israel, plus operating teams and other service providers. It is supposed to be fairly north but not too north, about half way between Tel Aviv and Israel's northern border. The venue does not have a bomb shelter or underground parking.
Given the war going on, will we be able to get married in the planned date?
Consider that there are currently emergency restrictions on event sizes in place in Israel (max 50 people and only if there is a shelter nearby). Businesses like event venues are obliged by these restrictions.
The market will resolve to YES if the event will happen as planned on May 4th. NO resolution will happen if the event will be postponed, change venue, be significantly smaller (100 guests or less), or completely canceled due to the war.
I won't trade in this market (although for the record I'll say that I'd probably put some mana on NO)
1,000People are also trading
@someoneR5c8l i have a request: don't mention to your bride that you created this market! It skews the odds against me if you do! 😜
@hidetzugu hahahaha I can't say she was happy about that 🙈
But after a couple of days she also started asking once in a while what's the prediction on manifold...
@traders ceasefire seems somewhat stable, and Israel and Hezbollah agreed on their own ceasefire. Are we still on 47% for a wedding in 2.5 weeks?
@someoneR5c8l seems like short notice for "hey guests, we're still on! please re-book your travel and hope the ceasefire doesn't break"
@Stralor Sounds like we need to get a PowerPoint presentation together to teach guests how to invoke travel protections for cases like these.
@Stralor Almost all of our guests are from Israel, which is not too big, so not too much travel is involved (besides ours, but we booked with an Israeli airline exactly because of that)
I don't think anything is legally stopping you. How high/low is your risk tolerance?
EDIT: As a side note - congrats on your upcoming marriage!
@Qoiuoiuoiu Currently events with more than 50 participants are not allowed in Israel. Also, I need guests to be willing to come to a wedding and we need to be able to fly to Israel.