Is Eliezer Yudkowsky a doomer?
96
Jan 1
Yes, a doomer
No, not a doomer
I've never heard of this person
Is Eliezer Yudkowsky a member of the Rationalist "doomer" subculture?
This poll is purely for calibration purposes, to verify the notability criteria for this market:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?
60% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?
31% chance
Eliezer Yudkowsky irrelevant by 2030
51% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky get fully blaked before 2027?
21% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?
14% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky talk like a normal person before 2030?
21% chance
If Eliezer Yudkowsky dies, will he die of "old age"-related causes?
72% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky ever win a Nobel Prize?
10% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky get killed by an AI?
19% chance
Eliezer Yudkowsky p(Doom) stock
70