85
65
2025
Yes, a doomer
No, not a doomer
I've never heard of this person
Is Eliezer Yudkowsky a member of the Rationalist "doomer" subculture?
This poll is purely for calibration purposes, to verify the notability criteria for this market:
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Will Eliezer Yudkowsky get an op-ed in the NY Times or Washington Post by the end of 2024?
27% chance
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61% chance
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30% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?
60% chance
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51% chance
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20% chance
If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?
33% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky lose his bet with Unknown?
72% chance