Is Eliezer Yudkowsky a doomer?
97
resolved Jan 1
Yes, a doomer
No, not a doomer
I've never heard of this person
Is Eliezer Yudkowsky a member of the Rationalist "doomer" subculture?
This poll is purely for calibration purposes, to verify the notability criteria for this market:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky ever win a Nobel Prize?
9% chance
At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?
55% chance
Will I gain any significant insight from reading Eliezer Yudkowsky's new book?
36% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?
23% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?
10% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky get fully blaked before 2027?
19% chance
Will I significantly deconvert Eliezer Yudkowsky from Bayesianism by the end of 2025?
2% chance
If Eliezer Yudkowsky dies, will he die of "old age"-related causes?
72% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be found to have committed fraud before 2030?
3% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky talk like a normal person before 2030?
53% chance