per this tweet:
if Harris is the Democratic Presidential nominee, will Trump refuse to debate her? resolves for any reason given, whether it's as stated in the above tweet or something else. as Trump often makes inflammatory statements then recants, this market only resolves when it's absolute that there is not a debate and not when Trump makes a remark.
resolves NA if Harris is not the candidate
eta context from the comments:
when will the market resolve?
market resolves either when the two debate (No) or Election Day; any refusals or threats before then are insufficient to resolve this market as mentioned in the above description
what counts as a debate?
to reduce ambiguities, I will consider it a debate if it's called a Debate officially (by the host and participants); if it's marketed as a Town Hall or similar, I won't consider it a Debate
what if Trump's reasons are bad faith?
as the cited original tweet implies Trump may refuse for less-than-good-faith reasons ('illegitimate candidate'), I'll resolve based on his refusal even if it's due to strict and immovable conditions ("I won't debate her unless it's hosted by Fox News on Columbus Day and she wears an orange hat") and he tries to leverage this to shift blame to Harris; note that I'm trying to reduce the chances of a grey area but as none of us are sure what Trump will say, there is a nonzero chance of some subjectivity
adding more clarification due to another question. we're getting into the weeds a bit with semantics in this scenario but:
if Trump offers a debate with terms that could reasonably/technically be met (like only meeting on a network that's favourable to him) but Kamala refuses, I'm inclined to resolve this as No/not consider this for Yes if it's the final say on a debate.
if his statement is framed in such a way that it's the only way he'll debate her (akin to "I'm not debating her unless..."), that verbiage is more clearly a refusal and I'm inclined to resolve Yes if that's the final say/they don't debate.
1,000
3.00
@shankypanky yes, how does it resolve in the scenario that for whatever reason Kamala refuses or cannot make it or whatever and there is no debate?
@shankypanky the current criteria seems to suggest it might resolve YES if there is no debate because Kamala declines
edit: ill defer to question asker
when will the market resolve?
market resolves either when the two debate (No) or Election Day; any refusals or threats before then are insufficient to resolve this market as mentioned in the above description
the market resolves yes if he refuses and they never debate. as mentioned in the comments below and the market description, he's made plenty of statements about refusing to debate and then recants, suggesting they will or have agreed upon it. if they ever debate before election day, it resolves No at that point.
@Traveel The description makes more sense to me when I pretend the title is "Will Trump refuse to ever debate Harris?". If they ever debate, then the answer is obviously NO. If they don't ever debate, then @shankypanky will look at the record of statements by Donald Trump to see if he refused to ever debate Kamala Harris. Of course, I could be interpreting the description wrong. I hope they just debate so we don't have to deal with blame games like with /ChristopherKing/will-either-man-back-out-of-the-elo.
@shankypanky Get Gary Marcus on Manifold. I want more overconfident people to bet against.
