Rumours say OpenAI is working on a Google Search rival. Will it release to the public by the end of 2024?
This market resolves Yes for a full version of a web search product, whether it's free or paid. Resolves No if the product is never released, or if it's still in alpha/beta.
1,000
3.00afaict the SearchGPT prototype test group is made up of only 10,000 users including some partners. The Atlantic points out some inaccuracies in the search results (without mentioning that Google Search isn't itself immune to returning links with conflicting information on the first page). everyone else makes an entire article out of not seeing a demo and having no real insight. I don't see any indication of timelines; reports are that OAI "hopes" to integrate it into ChatGPT - which, as mentioned in the comments below, will be sufficient to resolve this market if it works as promised in the demo.
just writing this comment to pin as an update.
@KongoLandwalker the rumour has always been that it's OAI releasing it so if there's a Microsoft announcement this market won't resolve. if there's an AI upgrade to Bing, I'll consider that a feature add to the existing Bing search engine and not satisfactory for answering Yes to the question "Will OpenAI release a competitor to Google Search?"
if there's a joint announcement I suppose that might be an edge case but based on rumours, I think it will be clear when OAI releases their competitor.
@traders I'm going to leave this open for a bit as experience has shown me that the hours+ after an OAI announcement are when it becomes more clear who, exactly, has access and then I can be sure whether the market is ready to resolve. here's more information as it stands right now:
SearchGPT seems to be rolling out now: https://www.testingcatalog.com/chatgpt-rolls-out-searchgpt-in-the-us-offering-live-web-search/
@Joshua Yeah, we'll have to see how long the rollout takes. This source says it will be released sometime this year: SearchGPT is coming to ChatGPT this year — here's why that is a big deal | Tom's Guide (tomsguide.com).
I created a related market to pin down the precise date when SearchGPT is integrated into ChatGPT: https://manifold.markets/JohannesSchmitt/when-will-searchgpt-be-integrated-i?r=Sm9oYW5uZXNTY2htaXR0
afaict the SearchGPT prototype test group is made up of only 10,000 users including some partners. The Atlantic points out some inaccuracies in the search results (without mentioning that Google Search isn't itself immune to returning links with conflicting information on the first page). everyone else makes an entire article out of not seeing a demo and having no real insight. I don't see any indication of timelines; reports are that OAI "hopes" to integrate it into ChatGPT - which, as mentioned in the comments below, will be sufficient to resolve this market if it works as promised in the demo.
just writing this comment to pin as an update.
I've answered that in the comments below but I've had a chance to watch the videos and read more of the news about SearchGPT since then. if the product released is as it's presented in the video, this will resolve Yes. I consider SearchGPT a product even if it's integrated into ChatGPT as a means of providing it to customers/the public. it's also clearly being positioned as an alternative to Google Search.
I'm always open to hearing from people who disagree with me ofc, but this is my current stance.
OpenAI announced their search tool today, and there is now a waitlist.
SearchGPT is a prototype of new AI search features | OpenAI
We welcome your second order thinking here: https://manifold.markets/jgyou/which-of-these-llm-search-companies
afaict it's being pegged as a Google Search competitor (regardless of whether it's a standalone product - SearchGPT seems like its own product and it's just delivered via integration with Chat). it needs to be fully launched, of course, before this can resolve Yes.
just wanted to acknowledge these comments - haven't had a chance to look at it myself too deeply but I'll have space to do that in a couple of hours
This guy https://x.com/btibor91/status/1798749440007962983 datamined the launch post for the prototype of searchgpt. I've never seen him be wrong!
https://search.chatgpt.com/ now returns a nicely designed 404 page. Previously it was just "Not found" in plain text. 🤔🤔🤔