Will OpenAI release a competitor to Google Search before 2025?
1k
2025
49%
chance

Rumours say OpenAI is working on a Google Search rival. Will it release to the public by the end of 2024?


This market resolves Yes for a full version of a web search product, whether it's free or paid. Resolves No if the product is never released, or if it's still in alpha/beta.

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@KongoLandwalker the rumour has always been that it's OAI releasing it so if there's a Microsoft announcement this market won't resolve. if there's an AI upgrade to Bing, I'll consider that a feature add to the existing Bing search engine and not satisfactory for answering Yes to the question "Will OpenAI release a competitor to Google Search?"

if there's a joint announcement I suppose that might be an edge case but based on rumours, I think it will be clear when OAI releases their competitor.

Already exists

https://search.chatgpt.com/ now returns a nicely designed 404 page. Previously it was just "Not found" in plain text. 🤔🤔🤔

@perlso59320 that's the Next JS default 404 page

i am a genius

opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 50% order

Limit order at 50%!

@Joshua even when im a genius and right about everything this is the result

Profit

-Ṁ1,330

@jim only 235 days til payday!

update:

patience Jimmy

If Released be microsoft - still resolves yes?

@KongoLandwalker the rumour has always been that it's OAI releasing it so if there's a Microsoft announcement this market won't resolve. if there's an AI upgrade to Bing, I'll consider that a feature add to the existing Bing search engine and not satisfactory for answering Yes to the question "Will OpenAI release a competitor to Google Search?"

if there's a joint announcement I suppose that might be an edge case but based on rumours, I think it will be clear when OAI releases their competitor.

bought Ṁ10 YES

VIews on this should also help you bet on:

@chrisjbillington @jim chat.openai.com now redirects to chatgpt.com.

bought Ṁ100 YES

I don’t understand these market dynamics? Wild swings without any new information? Seems quite plausible!

@benshindel I can tell who follows some of the same accounts as me when I start getting new trader notifs after I see some OAI search rival tweets on the tl 😂

@benshindel I for one just bet on the side that has more of the people I follow.

@Joshua oh that's a reliable lineup

@jim why are you NO on this?

@chrisjbillington just as a troll, I'll bet real money on YES if anyone interested

@jim I haven't bet but FWIW I'm finding this pretty plausible at the moment.

@chrisjbillington for ppl who have been building with LLMs for a while it's an obvious use I think... I have been working on an LLM powered search engine myself. Didn't want to - but that's where the technology took me.

@jim that's true but it was true in late 2022 as well and didn't really happen, and this market is about whether a specific company will do something this year. Any given company could just decide that's not their focus, not every company is going to implement every obvious application. OpenAI might want to be selling API access to their models as a part in someone else's search product rather than making their own, for example.

Plus, they could just make incremental improvements to how ChatGPT can already search, and that would not satisfy this market (probably).

No, the reason this is plausible to me because of the domain (which does look to be theirs), the fact that it sounds like search has been at least on their radar, and whilst those things wouldn't imply that it's imminent - apparently webmasters have seen repeated crawls of their sites by openAI spiders in recent months. Which seems more like search-engine indexing than just scraping training data, because you wouldn't need to scrape training data repeatedly (not that often, anyway), whereas search engines need to reindex to stay up to date.

And they have this event in a week or whatever, and I'm not expecting GPT-4.5 or GPT-5 yet, so I guess we're expecting something new.

On the other hand what about their relationship with Microsoft and Bing? Seems like a bit of a betrayal to go and make their own search engine, and if you've got bing access already it seems like a costly use of resources.

Anyway, plausible, but still not betting, definitely the onus of evidence for betting on "something specific happening" is pretty high for me

@chrisjbillington would be fun to have a market on "what will be true of search gpt" because what I'm doing is only really possible with GPT-4 level LLMs