The Seattle Effective Altruists (sEAttle) Meetup group (join us?) has a book club. After reading and discussing a book in person, everyone present can throw in a suggested title for the next read, and then we use Approval Voting to select.

After a spirited discussion about Suffering-Focused Ethics (which, incidentally, led to @RobertCousineau's commitment to being consensually waterboarded - of course, there's a market for that) we took a vote for November.

Results dubbed Open Philanthropy's AI Worldviews Contest winners as our content. Now, the question is: how many of the attendees on November 30th will have actually read all of the winning pieces? To save me from making a complex market, the question is: what percentage of attendees will have read all of the material when the Book Club meets on the evening of the 30th?

Relevant points:

• in the past two, 7-10 attendees have come to the meetings (not all of them respond on Meetup)

• it's not uncommon for book club members to attend despite not reading all (or any) of the material

• this is our final book club before 2024, as the holidays are approaching; this may mean people will show up for a chance to get together regardless of status

• the book club is also shared amongst the local EA/Rats/ACX groups, along with a note that people are welcome to join to discuss AI more broadly

• this is an admittedly oddly-framed market, but it's easier to factor percentages of attendees than material across multiple people and articles.