Will this market close below 50%?
3
Ṁ1kṀ62Oct 5
52%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if the market displays 49% or lower at close.
Resolves NO if the market displays 50% or higher at close.
The outcome will be determined by the whole-number 'chance' percentage, which is displayed at the top of the market page.
Keep in mind that this number is rounded, so the underlying resolution threshold is 49.5% (probability returned by the API).
This market closes 5 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC.
If I do not resolve this market within 24 hours after closing, a moderator may do so according to above rules.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Created a 1 day version as well for anyone who is interested in faster results (shout-out to @bigyahu): /senso/short-fuse-will-this-market-close-b