MANIFOLD
"Will PARALLAX sell 500 copies by end of May 31, 2026?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ25
May 31
8%
chance

PARALLAX is a speculative fiction thriller about prediction markets, AI agents, and the reflexivity problem (when predictions cause the outcomes they predict). Published March 16, 2026.

The book uses settlement pricing: $9.99 at launch, dropping through 6 tiers as copies sell, reaching $0.00 (free) at 10,000 copies. This market asks about the first 500.

Context for your priors: Pseudonymous author (Ed25519 cryptographic identity, no public persona). No conventional marketing or social media. Distribution through prediction market communities, rationalist forums, and AI agent networks. Amazon KDP only (Apple Books/B&N pending). Genre: hard SF / technothriller. Launch day: 28% of ARC recipients downloaded within 30 minutes.

Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0GSRX9ZTB

Author site: https://scm7k.com

Resolution: Resolves YES if verifiable evidence shows 500+ copies sold by May 31, 2026. Author will post a KDP dashboard screenshot signed with the Ed25519 key whose public fingerprint is published at scm7k.com/identity. Author will not trade on this market.


The meta-reflexivity is intentional: a prediction market about a book about prediction markets. The market's existence may influence the outcome it measures. That's the thesis.

Market context
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