Is Satoshi Nakamoto = Craig Wright?
Is Satoshi Nakamoto = Craig Wright?
23
1kṀ1604
2029
3%
chance

Gwern says "probably": https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19746448

resolves YES if there's conclusive evidence (i'm subjectively >99% confident) that Craig Wright is Satoshi Nakamoto, invented Bitcoin, etc before 2030

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!


Sort by:
8mo

We are all Satoshi, except for Craig Wright.

1y

I like this question, but I would prefer a more focused one - there is the Identity trial going on right now!

So I created a question specifically for the outcome of this trial - please vote:
https://manifold.markets/PiterBunt/will-craig-wright-be-recognized-as?r=UGl0ZXJCdW50

P.S. if it is NOT ok to share it here, feel free to remove my comment, no hard feeling!
It is my first question created))

predictedNO 1y

Craig Wright is a fraud and a scammer and anyone trying to perpetuate his false claims is either deliberately working against your best interests or they are falling for the scam

2y

Doesn't that linked article say that gwern seems to have changed his mind?
"This was one of the first and strongest "evidence" supporting Craig's claims, published by a well-known magazine and a reputable researcher. I've personally talked with several people who were convinced of the authenticity of Craig's claims using this publication as one of their primary justifications.

The linked thread has a long discussion between Greg Maxwell (/u/nullc) and Gwern (/u/gwern), where Greg calls him out and repeatedly asks him to retract his previous claims; Gwern acknowledges that he was deceived, but refuses to make an official retraction."

Satoshi Nakamoto turning out to be the kind of person who would sue people for libel for saying he's not Satoshi would be like if Banksy turned out to be the kind of person who... hang on, let me try and think of something funny.

It would be like if Banksy sued people for vandalism after they drew graffiti art on his billboard.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy