Will there be a major hurricane in the Atlantic between 08-31-223 and 09-10-2023?
Will there be a major hurricane in the Atlantic between 08-31-223 and 09-10-2023?
46
890Ṁ14kresolved Sep 7
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES per the NHC if there is a Cat III+ hurricane in the Atlantic by 09-10-2023 0z.
Graph shows the strike probability at 20230911 12z based on the number of ENS members (20230830 12z) that predict a hurricane (each member has equal weight). Strike probability = a hurricane will pass within a 300 km radius from a given location (purple = 5-10%, red = 10-20, organge = 20-30, yellow = 30-40) and within a time window of 48 hours of 20230911 12z.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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